378
FXUS63 KIWX 291726
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
126 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAT
INDICIES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN THROUGH MONDAY, FOCUSED
MAINLY ON MID MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
- SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE 80S DOMINATE MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK, WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO EDGE BACK NORTH TODAY, ALLOWING FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 EVEN ALONG THE
LAKESHORE AREAS OF LK MI. 70+ DEWPOINTS ARE NOT TOO FAR AWAY AND
WILL SLOWLY EDGE NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE, BUT TRIGGERS WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH ANY MINIMAL CHANCES
FOR A POP UP SHOWER/STORMS CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF US-24 (INTO
THE 70+ DEWPOINTS) AND MAYBE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AREAS OF LAPORTE
COUNTY AS A WEAK LAKE BREEZE MAY FORM AND HUG THE COAST. MAINTAINED
A SLGT CHC POP IN FAR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BUT SUSPECT
THIS MAY EVEN BE OVERDONE. LULL IN CHANCES OCCURS MOST, IF NOT ALL
OF TONIGHT BEFORE SUBTLE DISTURBANCES POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY MORNING AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES FROM MORE WIDESPREAD 70 DEWPOINTS. BETTER CHANCES
ARRIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING, BUT LACK OF DEFINED
TRIGGER AREAS STILL EXISTS BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FRONT ARRIVES
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. OVERALL ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
SIMILAR TO END OF LAST WEEK WITH MORE OF A PULSE NATURE TO
STORMS AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED ORGANIZATION AS BEST SHEAR
AND DYNAMICS LAG THE COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED IN PAST
DISCUSSIONS, MODEL BLEND HAS BEEN EXTREMELY OVERDONE WITH POPS
MONDAY AFTERNOON (80-95%) WITH ABOVE CONCERNS WARRANTED A
CONSENSUS TO CAP POPS AT LIKELY. A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE SOME
LOCALIZED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS (SPC DY2 MARGINAL RISK-
LEVEL 1 OF 5) MAINTAINED, BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN APPEARS A
GREATER THREAT WITH PWATS 1.75" TO OVER 2" AND A RATHER WEAK
OVERALL FLOW.
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH BY 6Z TUE WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INTO FRIDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND LOWER
HUMIDITY. DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES MAY INCREASE FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS MOISTURE INCREASES, BUT LACK OF STRONG
TRIGGERS OR DYNAMICS SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
A TROUGH TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
AND ALLOWS A VORT MAX TO RISE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING. A MORE HUMID AIR MASS RETURNS MONDAY MORNING AND THIS
ENVIRONMENT MAY MAKE IT MORE CONDUCIVE TO ALLOWING FOR CONVECTIVE
CELLS THAT COULD PRODUCE LIGHTNING AS EARLY AS THE MORNING, MORE
LIKELY FOR FWA THAN SBN, BUT NOT ZERO CHANCES EVEN FOR SBN.
DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND EVENTUAL SHORTWAVE POSITION, THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IS MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE
SHORTWAVE POSITION COULD REMOVE SBN FROM RAIN CHANCES.
SOUTH WIND TODAY OBTAINS A WESTERLY COMPONENT ON MONDAY. WHILE WINDS
STAY WEAKER THAN 10 KTS TODAY, SO 15 TO 20 KTS BREEZES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...ROLLER
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