956
FXUS63 KIWX 192355
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
755 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO
THIS EVENING.
- THE NEXT BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,THEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.
- ANOTHER HEATWAVE IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2025
A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WITH A FEW DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LINE HAD FORMED OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS FRACTURED LINE
WAS ORIGINALLY AN UPSTREAM MCS THAT HAD DEGENERATED INTO AN AREA
OF RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDED STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANYTHING
STRONG TO SEVERE SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF WARSAW WHERE CELLS WILL
BE ABLE TO TAP INTO AN UNMODIFIED AIRMASS. SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS A BULK SHEAR MAXIMUM AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BROKEN
LINE FROM WHITE CO TO JAY COUNTY (MONTICELLO TO PORTLAND) WHERE
THE STRONGEST STORMS IN OUR AREA SHOULD FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY, BUT SINCE THE FRONT HAD MOVED
SOUTH OF THE AREA, BELIEVE STORMS WILL NOT BE SEVERE GIVEN (1)
LIGHT WIND FLOW AND VERY LIMITED SHEAR IN THE LOWER LAYERS, (2)
LACK OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND (3) VERY LIMITED/THIN CAPE.
ANOTHER HEAT WAVE IS SLATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. HEAT HEADLINES ARE
LIKELY TO BE EVENTUALLY ISSUED AS THIS EVENT NEARS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 746 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2025
A PRONOUNCED MCV FEATURE BROUGHT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ESSENTIALLY
BETWEEN THE TERMINALS SITES OF KSBN/KFWA THIS EVENING. THE
FORCING FROM THIS MCV IS NOW DEPARTING NORTHWEST OHIO WITH JUST
A SHORT LIVED LIGHT SHOWER POTENTIAL AT KFWA THROUGH 01Z OR 02Z
THIS EVENING. STALLED SFC BOUNDARY, REINFORCED BY THE CONVECTION
FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING JUST SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR, MAY
ACT AS A BOUNDARY BETWEEN VFR AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF AND TO THE NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY AFFECTING FAR NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST INDIANA AFTER
05Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THESE LOW CIGS REDEVELOPING IS LOWER
FOR KFWA, BUT DO THINK THAT CIGS BELOW 2000 FT ARE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY EVEN AT KFWA AFTER DAYBREAK. BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SMALL SCALE WAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF
THE CENTRAL CONUS INDUCING STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE STALLED LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD INDUCE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE US 30 CORRIDOR. GIVEN KFWA MAY BE ON
PERIPHERY OF THIS ACTIVITY, WILL MAINTAIN PROB30 MENTION FOR
NOW.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page