299
FXUS63 KIWX 081723
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
123 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A RETURN TO UNCOMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS IN
STORE THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AND
HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
- BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN NEXT WEEK, WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING AND LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025
QUIET PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM IN TERMS OF ANY PRECIPITATION.
RIDGE AXIS BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WILL SUPPLY
ENOUGH CAPPING ALOFT TO KEEP SHOWERS/STORMS AT BAY THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK DISTURBANCE TODAY LOOKS TO GO JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA TODAY BUT ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO STAY OVER CENTRAL
MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON AN
INCREASE WITH THE FIRST INFLUX OF HIGHER DEW POINTS COMING INTO
THE AREA LATER TODAY WITH DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 70S
ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE CWA.
ON SATURDAY, DEW POINTS INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 70S WITH
HIGHS ALSO SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM ABOUT 92 TO 97 EXPECTED. ON
SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES MAY BE TEMPERED SLIGHTLY DUE TO SOME
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE TROUGHING TO THE WEST WITH HIGHS STILL
LOOKING TO GET INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ESPECIALLY FOR
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE LESS
COVERAGE. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO BE IN THE LOW 70S. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR HEAT INDICES A TAD LESS THAN SATURDAY'S RANGING FROM
ABOUT 91 TO 96 DEGREES. AS THE TROUGH TO THE WEST GETS CLOSER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO
THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD ON MONDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE RIDGING WHICH WILL BE PUSHING OFF TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF THE REGION.
NEXT WEEK WE DO SYNOPTICALLY COOL SLIGHTLY BUT WE ENTER A MORE
ZONAL PATTERN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK DISTURBANCES TO PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA AND WITH THE SCATTERED SHOWERY NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION DUE TO A LACK OF ANY REAL LIFTING FOCAL
MECHANISMS AND MAINLY INSTABILITY DRIVEN WILL BE RATHER
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE THE SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP. THIS
PATTERN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S CONTINUES THROUGH
NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE DAILY CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS. THE LONGER RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THINGS
LOOK TO GET HOT AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THAT AS WE GET CLOSER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025
EXPECT PLENTY OF RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PROVIDE PREVAILING DRY CONDITIONS. BCFG WAS NOTED AT FWA THIS
MORNING, BUT THEY STAYED MOSTLY IN VFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TODAY. FOG WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE SHALLOW TO GONE COMPLETELY AS WE
CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY EACH DAY. AS SUCH, WILL PROVIDE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR BOTH TAFS. GENERALLY, SOUTH WINDS
PREVAIL AND 10 KTS SUSTAINED WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SBN THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN TOMORROW SO ADDITIONAL GROUPS WILL BE USED TO HIGHLIGHT
THAT CHANGE.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANDERSEN
AVIATION...ROLLER
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