498
FXUS63 KIWX 101713
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
113 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 AND HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS WEEK. THE FIRST CHANCES
WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. BETTER CHANCES ACROSS
THE AREA WILL BE EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON EXACT TIMING AND LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AS THE RIDGING STILL
REMAINS STUBBORNLY IN PLACE OVER THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. THIS COUPLED WITH THE DEW
POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL MAKE FOR FAIRLY UNCOMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE RIDGING HAS KEPT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY UP TO OUR
NORTH AND FURTHER WEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGING. AS
THE RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHWARD, WE WILL START TO SEE
SOME OF THAT ACTIVITY INCH CLOSER INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MONDAY MORNING HOURS. AT
THIS TIME KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION DETERIORATES AS IT PUSHES INTO THE CAPPING PRESENT
OVER THE AREA. MONDAY AGAIN HOT AND HUMID BUT A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING THE HEAT
INDICES DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES. IT WILL STILL BE UNCOMFORTABLE
HOWEVER.
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING THINK THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH THE
BOUNDARY AS WE DO GET THE STUBBORN RIDGING BEGIN TO PUSH
SOUTHEASTERLY OUT OF THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A BETTER
FORCING MECHANISM TO OVERCOME ANY RESIDUAL CAPPING. THE COOL FRONT
DOES BEGIN TO BRING IN A LITTLE COOLER AIRMASS AND A LITTLE BIT
LESS HUMIDITY INTO THE AREA. TUESDAY WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. OUR LOWS DROP DOWN BACK INTO THE 60S TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WE
SEE WEDNESDAY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THIS REPEATS FOR
THURSDAY. STILL LOOKING AT SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON, OF COURSE AS IS THE
NATURE OF INSTABILITY DRIVEN CONVECTION IT WILL BE HARD TO
EXACTLY WHERE A SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPS.
BY FRIDAY, WE START TO SEE ANOTHER WARMING TREND INTO THE
WEEKEND WHERE WE SEE A RETURN TO THE MORE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. SATURDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN GET
INTO THE 90S AND DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE 70S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
A TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE WEST HELPS TO PUSH THE DEPARTING RIDGE
FARTHER EAST OUT TO SEA. THIS PUSHES THE CHANCES FOR RAIN CLOSER TO
THE REGION FOR MONDAY. GIVEN OUR LONG PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER, THERE
IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT IF WE CAN EVEN GET RAIN TO FALL.
ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN THE LOWER CHANCES TO AFFECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS,
WILL LEAVE OUT THE CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THESE TAFS. HOWEVER, FUTURE
SHIFTS WILL WANT TO CONSIDER PUTTING THOSE CHANCES IN IF RAIN WILL
BE HARD ENOUGH TO BRING DOWN FLIGHT CONDITIONS. AT THE VERY LEAST,
WILL HAVE ADDITIONAL GROUPS TO TAKE SUSTAINED 10 KTS (WITH PERIODIC
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS AT SBN) OUT OF THE TAFS THIS EVENING AND KEEP
IT LIGHT OVERNIGHT. TRAJECTORIES STILL LOOK SOUTHERLY FOR THE
PERIOD.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANDERSEN
AVIATION...ROLLER
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