985
FXUS63 KIWX 101801
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
201 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
- A FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS WEEK. THE FIRST
CHANCE WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FAR
NORTHWEST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
BETTER CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WILL TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
HOT UPPER RIDGE WILL RELENT BRIEFLY INTO MID WEEK TIMED WITH
DISTURBANCE SHARPENING EWD THROUGH HUDSON BAY YET SUBSEQUENTLY
REAMPLIFY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WEAK SFC FRONTAL ZONE BENEATH UPPER
TROUGH AXIS HAS SUPPORTED DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS AND EXPECT
NORTHWEST/NRN ZONES WILL BEGIN TO SEE AN INFLUENCE OF THIS FORCING
FEATURE BY MONDAY AFTN AND OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE AREA
TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOLLOW THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
TURNING HOT AGAIN AS UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS OVERHEAD NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
A TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE WEST HELPS TO PUSH THE DEPARTING RIDGE
FARTHER EAST OUT TO SEA. THIS PUSHES THE CHANCES FOR RAIN CLOSER TO
THE REGION FOR MONDAY. GIVEN OUR LONG PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER, THERE
IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT IF WE CAN EVEN GET RAIN TO FALL.
ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN THE LOWER CHANCES TO AFFECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS,
WILL LEAVE OUT THE CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THESE TAFS. HOWEVER, FUTURE
SHIFTS WILL WANT TO CONSIDER PUTTING THOSE CHANCES IN IF RAIN WILL
BE HARD ENOUGH TO BRING DOWN FLIGHT CONDITIONS. AT THE VERY LEAST,
WILL HAVE ADDITIONAL GROUPS TO TAKE SUSTAINED 10 KTS (WITH PERIODIC
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS AT SBN) OUT OF THE TAFS THIS EVENING AND KEEP
IT LIGHT OVERNIGHT. TRAJECTORIES STILL LOOK SOUTHERLY FOR THE
PERIOD.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...T
AVIATION...ROLLER
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