679
FXUS63 KIWX 102348
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
748 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
- A FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS WEEK. THE FIRST
CHANCE WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FAR
NORTHWEST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
BETTER CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WILL TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
HOT UPPER RIDGE WILL RELENT BRIEFLY INTO MID WEEK TIMED WITH
DISTURBANCE SHARPENING EWD THROUGH HUDSON BAY YET SUBSEQUENTLY
REAMPLIFY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WEAK SFC FRONTAL ZONE BENEATH UPPER
TROUGH AXIS HAS SUPPORTED DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS AND EXPECT
NORTHWEST/NRN ZONES WILL BEGIN TO SEE AN INFLUENCE OF THIS FORCING
FEATURE BY MONDAY AFTN AND OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE AREA
TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOLLOW THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
TURNING HOT AGAIN AS UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS OVERHEAD NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THIS PERIOD. THERE
ARE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES STARTING MONDAY MORNING (KSBN) AND
AFTERNOON (KFWA) AS A COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER FROM THE WEST.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW IN THE TIMING/POTENTIAL, AS IT'S
POSSIBLE ONLY NON-IMPACTFUL SHOWERS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT RUNS
INTO THE EXITING RIDGE. FOR NOW ADDED VCSH AND A PROB30 FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL (WITH BEST GUESS AS OF THIS WRITING FOR
THE TIMING). SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BR/VIS 4SM TOWARDS
MORNING AT KFWA BUT I SUSPECT IT WILL BE BRIEF IF IT FORMS AT
ALL, ESPECIALLY AS S-SW WINDS ARE 4-9 KNOTS IN THE MORNING. IF
WINDS END UP BEING LIGHTER, SOME BR IS POSSIBLE.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...T
AVIATION...MCD
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