511
FXUS63 KIWX 110511
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
111 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
- A FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS WEEK. THE FIRST
CHANCE WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FAR
NORTHWEST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
BETTER CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WILL TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
HOT UPPER RIDGE WILL RELENT BRIEFLY INTO MID WEEK TIMED WITH
DISTURBANCE SHARPENING EWD THROUGH HUDSON BAY YET SUBSEQUENTLY
REAMPLIFY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WEAK SFC FRONTAL ZONE BENEATH UPPER
TROUGH AXIS HAS SUPPORTED DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS AND EXPECT
NORTHWEST/NRN ZONES WILL BEGIN TO SEE AN INFLUENCE OF THIS FORCING
FEATURE BY MONDAY AFTN AND OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE AREA
TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOLLOW THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
TURNING HOT AGAIN AS UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS OVERHEAD NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
STILL QUIET AND DRY HERE LOCALLY, ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE BEFORE DAYBREAK AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF TO
OUR WEST SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD. VFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES (20-30%)
FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING; RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER BUT CAN'T
RULE OUT A FEW POP-UP, VERY HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE
BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE BETWEEN 18Z TO 03Z WITH POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OR
STORMS IMPACT EITHER OF THE TERMINALS. HAVE KEPT THE PREVIOUS
PROB30 GROUPS GIVEN THAT CONFIDNECE ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF
ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY IS LOW.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...T
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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