681
FXUS63 KIWX 110729
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
329 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
- A FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS WEEK. THE FIRST
CHANCES WILL BEGIN TODAY FOR THE MAINLY NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
BETTER CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
ON EXACT TIMING AND LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGING BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
THE STUBBORN RIDGING HAS CONTINUED TO HOLD ON AND HAS BEEN SLOW
TO PROGRESS SOUTH AND EASTWARD. MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST WITH THIS FACT IN MIND. PUSHED BACK PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BY SEVERAL HOURS WHICH MAY END UP NOT BEING ENOUGH, BUT
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING DID NOT PUSH BACK TIMING FURTHER. THE TIMING BEING
PUSHED BACK WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR TUESDAY TO STILL REMAIN
HOT/HUMID ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE COOL FRONT.
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FURTHER OUT AS THE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS STILL LOOKS TO BE THE TUESDAY INTO THE WEDNESDAY
TIME PERIOD WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSAGE SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE CWA. THE BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE HOTTER TEMPERATURES
STILL LOOKS GOOD ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE BROAD RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS LOOKS TO BUILD NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION BEGINNING FRIDAY. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN
ONCE AGAIN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS AGAIN GETTING BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S AND DEW POINTS PUSHING BACK INTO
THE 70S BEGINNING SATURDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
HEAT/HUMIDITY MAY EVEN STICK AROUND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK, HOWEVER STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE TIMING OF A
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
STILL QUIET AND DRY HERE LOCALLY, ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE BEFORE DAYBREAK AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF TO
OUR WEST SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD. VFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES (20-30%)
FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING; RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER BUT CAN'T
RULE OUT A FEW POP-UP, VERY HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE
BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE BETWEEN 18Z TO 03Z WITH POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OR
STORMS IMPACT EITHER OF THE TERMINALS. HAVE KEPT THE PREVIOUS
PROB30 GROUPS GIVEN THAT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF
ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY IS LOW.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANDERSEN
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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