280
FXUS63 KIWX 132346
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
746 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
- LESS HUMID AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
- CHANCES FOR STORMS (20-40%) RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2025
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH HEATING FOR A FEW ROGUE SHOWERS (20%) THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE FOCUS FOR VERTICAL GROWTH
WILL BE NEAR A LAKE BREEZE IN THE NORTH, AND NEAR A DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ZONE AND COLD FRONT NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE US 24 CORRIDOR
WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY MAGNITUDES RESIDE. DRY, PARTLY
CLOUDY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS HUMID OTHERWISE INTO THIS EVENING.
PLEASANT WX IS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY AS A STABLE/DRY AIRMASS
SETTLES IN WITHIN THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF A LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
DRIFTING EAST THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DOES BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN ON FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITION AS LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES VEER MORE SOUTHERLY IN WAKE
OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO SUPPORT A RETURN TO HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE FLEXES EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. PEAK PM HEAT INDICES BACK IN THE 90S APPEAR LIKELY IN THIS
REGIME, WITH SUNDAY LOOKING LIKE THE WARMEST (UPPER 90S TO NEAR
100F). HOW WARM IT GETS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE TRACK OF
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES CRESTING THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME, WITH CLOUD DEBRIS AND
COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS AND NON-ZERO SHOWER/STORM CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE DOES LOOK TO RETROGRADE WEST BY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD LIKELY ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH WITH
CONVECTION AND COOLER/LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2025
LAKE BREEZE/COOL FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST OF SBN NEAR THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE ABOUT
DISSIPATED. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE FROM 11-13Z.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...SKIPPER
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