281
FXUS63 KIWX 141810
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
210 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH PEAK AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.
- PERIODIC CHANCES FOR STORMS (20-40%) SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR A SUBTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY IN NW OH AND SC MI THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO LINGERING
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT HEATING. THESE SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE TO FESTER NEAR THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OTHERWISE INTO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND PLEASANT HUMIDITY LEVELS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
TRACK EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN SOME PASSING CLOUDS GIVEN AN OVERALL DEARTH OF
MOISTURE. FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY OTHERWISE
AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TRAJECTORIES VEER MORE SOUTHERLY IN WAKE OF THE
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HEAT DOME (SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE)
BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH
A RETURN TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. PEAK PM HEAT INDICES WILL
LIKELY MAKE A RUN AT THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100F IN MANY LOCATIONS EACH
DAY. SEVERAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WILL LIKELY CREST THIS RIDGE
OVER THE WEEKEND, MAINLY IMPACTING AREAS OFF TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. WITH THAT SAID,
CANNOT RULE OUT CLOUD DEBRIS AND COMPOSITE OUTFLOWS CLIPPING
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA, BEST CHANCES (20-
40% STORMS) MAINLY IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY PERIODS.
SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST NEXT WEEK
WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ANTICIPATED AROUND TUESDAY IN THIS
TRANSITION WITH CHANCES (30-50%) FOR CONVECTION. DRIER AND LESS
HUMID AIR SHOULD THEN SETTLE IN FOR THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIODS PER A
MODEL CONSENSUS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
AN AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE WAS NOTED ON SATELLITE AND SFC OBS
WHICH IS RESULTING IN A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF CU/STRATOCU
FROM NEAR KBTL SOUTHEAST TO KDFI AND KAOH. CAN'T RULE OUT A
STRAY SPRINKLE OR SHOWER IN THIS AREA, BUT THINK KFWA AND KSBN
LIKELY ONLY SEES SOME SCATTERED LOW END VFR BASES THROUGH
SUNSET. CLEAR THINGS BACK OUT NEAR 00Z WITH MORE CU POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...FISHER
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