263
FXUS63 KIWX 022332
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
732 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE MORE WARM DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 80.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER
OVER NORTHWEST OHIO THURSDAY MORNING.
- HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- THERE IS A MODERATE SWIM RISK FOR LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES IN BERRIEN
COUNTY, MI ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A HIGH SWIM RISK FOR BOTH LA PORTE
COUNTY, IN AND BERRIEN COUNTY, MI ON THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2025
WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITIES
AND SOME DROUGHT FEEDBACK HAVE BEEN ALLOWING NIGHT TEMPERATURES
TO FALL INTO THE 50S OVER MANY AREAS WITH EVEN SOME MID 40S OVER
LOCALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL ALLOW MILDER
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING
RAIN TONIGHT.
A COMPOSITE OF THE LATEST MODELS FAVOR RAIN IN A 24 HOUR WINDOW
FROM WEDNESDAY AT 18Z (2PM EDT) TO THURSDAY AT 18Z (2PM EDT).
RELATIVELY WEAK DYNAMICS AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PREVENT
STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
FROM A HALF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
A SUBSTANTIAL NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY NEAR 400 METERS WILL PERSIST
FROM BASICALLY THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TO NEAR THE SOUTH END OF
HUDSON BAY NEAR JAMES BAY UNTIL LATE SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM, LIKELY
AIDED BY MORE DROUGHT FEEDBACK, WILL BRING CHILLY TEMPERATURES
WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S TO FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2025
WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR AG
FOG OVERNIGHT, THINK THE AREA REMAINS VFR WITH THE MAJORITY OF IT
STAYING AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. THEN, WITH THE BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US, A BETTER SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN FROM
CENTRAL CANADA FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
RETURN IS RATHER WEAK AND THERE ARE SIGNS THAT IT MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS PROBABLY ACTS TO LIMIT THE EXTENT OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. GIVEN SOME QUESTION ABOUT IF
RAIN CAN BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO AFFECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WILL LEAVE THEM OUT OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE. BY THE TIME WE
GET TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WE'LL HAVE A STRONGER GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT THERMALS WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
SO 10 KT SUSTAINED WINDS AND 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS WILL BECOME MORE
COMMON.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...ROLLER
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