958
FXUS63 KIWX 030554
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
154 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE MORE WARM DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 80.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER
OVER NORTHWEST OHIO THURSDAY MORNING.
- HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- THERE IS A MODERATE SWIM RISK FOR LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES IN BERRIEN
COUNTY, MI ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A HIGH SWIM RISK FOR BOTH LA PORTE
COUNTY, IN AND BERRIEN COUNTY, MI ON THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2025
WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITIES
AND SOME DROUGHT FEEDBACK HAVE BEEN ALLOWING NIGHT TEMPERATURES
TO FALL INTO THE 50S OVER MANY AREAS WITH EVEN SOME MID 40S OVER
LOCALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL ALLOW MILDER
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING
RAIN TONIGHT.
A COMPOSITE OF THE LATEST MODELS FAVOR RAIN IN A 24 HOUR WINDOW
FROM WEDNESDAY AT 18Z (2PM EDT) TO THURSDAY AT 18Z (2PM EDT).
RELATIVELY WEAK DYNAMICS AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PREVENT
STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
FROM A HALF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
A SUBSTANTIAL NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY NEAR 400 METERS WILL PERSIST
FROM BASICALLY THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TO NEAR THE SOUTH END OF
HUDSON BAY NEAR JAMES BAY UNTIL LATE SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM, LIKELY
AIDED BY MORE DROUGHT FEEDBACK, WILL BRING CHILLY TEMPERATURES
WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S TO FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED PRIOR TO THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE VARYING SOMEWHAT ON HOW
EARLY SHOWERS COULD ARRIVE AT KSBN WITH LOW CHANCES (PROB30) BETWEEN
18 AND 21Z BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES AND PRECIPITATION BECOMES
MORE LIKELY BETWEEN 21Z AND 3Z THU. WILL THEREFORE HAVE
PREDOMINATE SHOWERS (LOW END VFR TO HIGH END MVFR) IN THIS
PERIOD, WITH A PROB30 FOR STORMS 21-00Z. AT KFWA...DRY
CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z WITH RAPID ONSET OF SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A STORM OR 2 SHORTLY THEREAFTER. HAVE WENT WITH A
TEMPO 2-6Z AT KFWA TO HANDLE SOMEWHAT HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR PREDOMINATE MVFR CONDITIONS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...FISHER
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