748
FXUS63 KIWX 041806
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
206 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY AND BRIEFLY WARMER ON FRIDAY WITH WESTERLY GUSTS OF 25 TO
35 MPH.
- MAINLY DRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
- COOL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES
THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 206 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
A COMPACT/ROBUST SHORTWAVE AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WILL SLINGSHOT EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, EVENTUALLY GETTING ABSORBED INTO AN ONTARIO UPPER LOW
LATER FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION SHOULD
MISS NORTH GIVEN THE TRACK, WITH THE MAIN IMPACT LOCALLY BEING A
RAMPING PRE-FRONTAL KINEMATIC FIELD LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. HREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A ~40 KT LLJ DURING THIS TIME
WHICH COULD PROMOTE BRIEF GUSTIER WEST WINDS (30-40 MPH) MID MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS GREATER MIXING COMMENCES. THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELD DOES DIMINISH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TRAILING SFC
TROUGH TRACKS THROUGH, THOUGH CAA AND INCREASED MIXING DEPTHS
WILL STILL KEEP THINGS GUSTY. MODELS DO HINT A BRIEF FGEN FLARE
UP OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SUB 700 MB AIR IS VERY DRY HOWEVER SUGGESTING VIRGA/SPRINKLES
AT WORST. TIMING OF THE FRONT SHOULD FAVOR HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 60S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST OTHERWISE.
UPPER TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH
COOLER WEATHER PERSISTING. SEVERAL SMALL AMPLITUDE IMPULSES WILL
SWING THROUGH IN THIS REGIME WITH NON-ZERO CHANCES FOR A FEW
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS, BEST CHANCES (10%) IN LOWER MI THANKS TO
SOME LAKE MI MOISTURE FLUX SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN THE
WEAK NATURE TO THESE WAVES, AND THE OVERALL DEARTH OF MOISTURE, WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS IN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
ON A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
DIURNAL POST-FRONTAL CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN SCT-
BKN AND MAINLY LOW VFR. VFR/DRY OTHERWISE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A ~40 KT LLJ KICKING IN TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS WILL
BYPASS NORTH, WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS EXPECTED ONCE DIURNAL
HEATING COMMENCES MID MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON
FRIDAY.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
INZ103.
OH...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ177-277.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
046.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
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