120
FXUS63 KIWX 061040
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
640 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES NORTH OF US-6 TONIGHT.
- COOL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND TREND WARMER, INTO THE 80S, BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR LAKE MICHIGAN
BEACHES THROUGH SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
CONTINUED FORCING OF A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF THE US
VIA CYCLONIC WAVE BREAKS HAS ALLOWED FOR A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN CONCERT WITH THE NORMAL
NEGATIVE EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION PATTERN. THIS PATTERN HAS
ALLOWED FOR COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER LOW HAS
ALLOWED COOL NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE AREA. WITHIN THIS TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES, VARIOUS SHORTWAVES HAVE TRAVERSED LAKE MI
PROVIDING VARIOUS AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER AND TIMES OF LIGHT
RAIN. GIVEN THE REINFORCING COLD AIR AND NOW FINALLY SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCED
LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES EXISTS FOR TONIGHT. THE LIMITING FACTOR
WOULD BE THE SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT COULD CAUSE THIS
ALL TO DRY UP BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND. THE BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DEPARTS AND THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS SUNDAY
MORNING AND SO THAT'S WHEN IT'S EXPECTED THAT THE LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUD COVER WOULD BEGIN TO WANE. HIGH PRESSURE IS ALREADY INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO EXPECT A RETURN TO SUNNY SKIES
THEN, WHICH MAKES SENSE WITH THE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WEST
COAST OF THE US INTERRUPTING THE EPO.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SPRINKLE CHANCE IS THE ONLY RAIN CHANCE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THOUGH, AS PLENTY OF DRY AIR RESIDES ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THE BACK SIDE OF A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM EVEN AS WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHS SWING THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD. GIVEN OUR LOCATION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WEAK WARM
ADVECTION ALLOWS A WARMING TREND FROM SUNDAY INTO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK
FROM THE COOL 60S THIS WEEKEND TO REACHING 80 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK, BUT THAT ALSO APPEARS TO BE A DRY FROPA. HIGH PRESSURE IS
QUICK ON ITS HEELS WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
THERE'S A POTENTIAL TO DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY AREAS N OF US-6 AND E OF I-69. THIS NORMALLY PERKS THE
EARS UP ABOUT FROST POTENTIAL, BUT AT THIS TIME, IT ONLY LOOKS LIKE
THERE'S AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUCH TEMPERATURES. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, THIS PERIOD MAY
NEED TO BE FOLLOWED.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
WEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WE'LL HAVE GUSTS STARTING
AROUND MIDDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AS MIXING INTO
THE LOW LEVEL JET COMMENCES. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WRAP AROUND THE
TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA, BUT CIGS SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
LAKE ENHANCED INSTABILITY AND A FEW MAY EVEN TRAVERSE THROUGH SBN,
BUT EVEN IF SOME DO MAKE IT THAT FAR SOUTH, SFC-LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
SHOULD PRECLUDE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
INZ103.
OH...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MIZ177-
277.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...ROLLER
AVIATION...ROLLER
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