627
FXUS63 KIWX 070832
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
432 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE FROM THE MID 60S, LOW 70S TODAY INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S AND LOW-MID 80S INTO NEXT WEEKEND. VERY COLD
TONIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S.
- OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES EARLY TODAY,
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
- THERE IS A MODERATE SWIM RISK FOR LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES ALONG
THE SHORES OF LA PORTE COUNTY, IN AND BERRIEN COUNTY, MI.
BREAKING WAVES AND CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED. USE CAUTION IF
VISITING THE BEACHES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOLER WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND AND SHOWERS OVERNIGHT/THIS AM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT THROUGH
THE PERIOD, GIVING WAY TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WHICH WILL
SEVERELY LIMIT/PRECLUDE THE CONTINUANCE OF ANY LAKE-ENHANCED SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND GRADUALLY REDUCE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S, WITH SOME LOCATIONS ALONG/SOUTH OF US 24 REACHING
AROUND 70.
TONIGHT WILL BE COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL
BE NEARLY CALM AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR-SO EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL TO AROUND 40, WITH SEVERAL SITES (ESPECIALLY NEAR HILLSDALE,
MI) DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S. BRRR!
THE SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT, BUT UNTIL THEN WE HAVE 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 8-13C
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S MONDAY, AND THE
MID-UPPER 70S BY TUESDAY.
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
PUTTING OUT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN OUR WESTERN/CENTRAL CWA WED
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON-BUT MOST LEAVE US COMPLETELY DRY. I LEFT OUT
ANY MENTION AT THIS POINT GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WE REMAIN WEDGED BETWEEN THE STALLED/SLOWLY EXITING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF US, AND THE BUILDING RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
DESERT SW/TEXAS NORTH AND EAST INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER GREAT LAKES. HOW WARM WE GET DEPENDS ON HOW FAR EAST/NORTHEAST
THE RIDGE REACHES AND THE TROUGH EXITS. 850MB TEMPS WOULD RANGE FROM
13-19C (DEPENDING ON MODEL)THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S, LOW TO MID 80S WED/THU, THEN IN THE MID-
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S FRI.
SATURDAY WE HAVE QUITE THE PATTERN DIFFERENCE LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS
MODEL SOLUTIONS--SO TAKE IT WITH A GRAIN OF SALT...BUT A POTENTIALLY
STRONGER WAVE/TROUGH WILL DESCEND ON THE GREAT LAKES AND
CONVECTION ROUNDS THE RIDGE (NOW BROKEN DOWN SOMEWHAT) INTO OUR
AREA SATURDAY. IT'S POSSIBLE OTHER SOLUTIONS VERIFY AND
PRECIPITATION HOLDS OFF UNTIL SAT NIGHT/SUN. FOR NOW, LEFT
CHANCES OUT GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE BUT HAVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S, LOW 80S SAT/SUN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE HELPING TO AUGMENT THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT MOVES
THROUGH IN THE FIRST 6 HRS OF THIS TAF PERIOD AND EXPECT BROKEN
CLOUD COVER TO SCATTER OUT BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE
IN. A SECONDARY WAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, BUT LESS
MOISTURE RESIDES OUT IN FRONT OF IT SO THIS HELPS TO EXPLAIN THE
DRYING TREND ON SUNDAY. GIVEN THE DEPARTURE OF THE STRONG VORT
MAXES, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES TODAY AND SO GUSTS WILL ALSO
RELAX. SUSTAINED WINDS REACH AROUND 10 KTS DURING PEAK HEATING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
CANCELLED THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR BERRIEN COUNTY, MI EARLIER
THAN PLANNED. TRICKY BEACH FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ALBEIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.
WINDS ALONG THE LAKESHORE THIS MORNING (BERRIEN, MI/LA PORTE, IN
COUNTIES) ARE MORE NORTHEAST-EAST FROM CHANNELING/LAND BREEZE
INTERACTIONS, MEETING IN A CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER LAKE MI JUST BEYOND
OUR NEARSHORE ZONES. I SUSPECT THIS IS LIMITING THE WAVE HEIGHTS.
ORIGINAL FORECAST HAD WAVES UP TO AROUND 3.5-4.5 FT BY THIS TIME IN
THE MORNING, HOWEVER THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW ONLY AROUND 2.5 TO
3 FT. WE ENDED UP CANCELING OUR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVERNIGHT
AS WELL GIVEN THE LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS/WINDS. THE LATEST WW3 COMES
IN WITH WAVES AROUND 3 FT LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY,
DESPITE SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WAVE
DIRECTION SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, WHICH IS WITHIN 30
DEGREES OF SHORE-NORMAL FOR MOST OF OUR BEACHES. WAVE PERIODS
ARE ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 4-5 SECONDS (AS WE ARE CURRENTLY
SEEING), WHICH IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WHERE
PERIODS WERE EXPECTED TO BE 6-7 SECONDS TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON
(MORE CONDUCIVE TO RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT).
GIVEN THESE FACTORS, OPTED TO GO WITH A MODERATE SWIM RISK FOR BOTH
COUNTIES TODAY. BREAKING WAVES AND CURRENTS ARE STILL EXPECTED, SO
IF VISITING THE BEACH FOR SWIMMING, BE CAUTIOUS AND HEED THE ADVICE
OF PARK/BEACH STAFF AND ANY LIFEGUARDS. DO NOT SWIM NEAR PIERS OR
BREAKWALLS AS STRUCTURAL CURRENTS ALWAYS EXIST NEAR THESE
FEATURES.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...ROLLER
MARINE...MCD/ROLLER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page