221
FXUS63 KIWX 081815
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
215 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS IN THE 70S TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL THEN CLIMB TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS IN THE 80S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
OVERALL HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE.
- NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE (20%
OR LESS) IN MEASURABLE RAINFALL RETURNING THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
ALTHOUGH OVERALL UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THE PROGRESS WILL BE HAMPERED SOMEWHAT BY A WEAK
TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
WARM THROUGH WED WITH 850 MB TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER TEENS (HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80). A FEW MODELS HAVE HINTED AT A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHOWERS, BUT IT WILL BE AN UPHILL BATTLE TO FORM AND ANY
PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND AS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW
AND MID LEVELS WILL EXIST. AS A RESULT, WILL LIMIT ANY POPS TO LESS
THAN 15% FOR THIS PERIOD WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ANTICIPATED.
INCREASED RIDGING ALOFT WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD STARTING
THURSDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUING TO WARM (850 MB
TEMPS +14 TO +18) RESULTING IN HIGHS SETTLING WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S. 850 MB FLOW IS RATHER WEAK AND FOCUSED MAINLY TO
THE WEST OF THE REGION WHERE THE 60+ DEWPOINTS WILL RESIDE (DOUBT
ANYONE WILL COMPLAIN ABOUT THAT).
AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL RESIDE WELL NORTH INTO CANADA, WITH
ONE WAVE, CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA, SET TO MOVE EAST, DEEPEN
AND THEN DIVE S OR SE THIS WEEKEND. THE 12Z GEM/GFS TRACK THE CENTER
TO THE VICINITY OF LK ONTARIO BY 6Z MON WITH THE 12Z EC MUCH
FURTHER WEST OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI. THE FINAL TRACK AND
SUBSEQUENT IMPACTS (OR LACK THEREOF) WILL BE DETERMINED BY WHICH
FEATURE (THE RIDGE OR DEEP LOW) CAN WIN THE BATTLE. WITH THE EC
AN OUTLIER AND SEVERAL DAYS TO GO IN THE FORECAST, NO MORE THAN
SLGT CHC POPS ARE WARRANTED IN THIS PERIOD. IF THE LOW WINS
OUT, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN ADVERTISED, BUT IF
THE HIGH CAN HOLD ON A CONTINUATION OF MID 80S (OR MAYBE WARMER)
WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1213 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
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