105
FXUS63 KIWX 110522
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
122 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- LOW CHANCES (20-30%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING; OTHERWISE LITTLE IF ANY RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.
- A WARM AND DRY PATTERN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO POSSIBLY THE LOW 90S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY AND WARM
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST AS A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN BACK ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. ANY RAIN THAT FALLS TODAY WILL REMAIN ALOFT
AS VIRGA.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS,
OUR FORECAST AREA WILL GET WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WE END
UP ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THURSDAY THEN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 DEGREES BY THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH THE
MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN SETS UP OVER
THE CONUS; TEMPERATURES COULD GET EVEN WARMER INTO THE LOW 90S
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE GFS APPEARS MUCH TOO HIGH WITH RECENT
RUNS SHOWING RECORD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S NEXT WEEK BUT
THE WARMING TREND IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. FOR NOW, HAVE
STUCK WITH THE NBM BLEND WHICH HAS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S WITH ISOLATED HIGHS NEAR 90 SOUTH OF US 24. MUCH WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF MID
SEPTEMBER.
UNFORTUNATELY, NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS IN THE FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. LOW CHANCES (20-30%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIST ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT. THERE MAY BE SOME AID FROM A 500MB SHORTWAVE BUT WITH AN
UNFAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SETUP (CONSIDERABLE LACK OF GULF MOISTURE
AND ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS), I WOULD ANTICIPATE THAT THESE
RAIN CHANCES WILL LOWER IN FUTURE FORECAST ITERATIONS AND COULD
DISAPPEAR ENTIRELY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MEAGER SATURATION
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH. SHOULD ANY RAIN
FALL OVER THE WEEKEND, IT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO OFFSET
DEVELOPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. IN FACT, ANTECEDENT DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO
RAPID ONSET DROUGHT ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGIONS IN MID SEPTEMBER. PER THE MOST RECENT US DROUGHT
MONITOR, AREAS OF D1 MODERATE DROUGHT HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
ALONG THE US 24 CORRIDOR AND WILL LIKELY EXPAND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
POTENTIAL CIGS CONTINUE TO LOWER AS A BROAD TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED
VORT MAXES SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THIS MORNING LEAVING US WITH
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. STILL, PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
KEEPS US IN VFR CONDITIONS. A WEAK GRADIENT RESTRICTS GUSTS AND
SUSTAINED WIND SHOULD STAY BELOW 10 KTS. WIND IS EXPECTED TO RANGE
BETWEEN NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...ROLLER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page