872
FXUS63 KIWX 130728
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
328 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S TO AROUND 90.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 148 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TOP THE UPSTREAM RIDGE AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. DIURNAL TIMING IS FAVORABLE FOR
STORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY AFTER 19Z (3PM EDT).
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS APPEAR LIKELY IN ABOUT A 6 HOUR
WINDOW FROM 3PM TO 9PM EDT. MODERATELY UNSTABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES (ABOUT 6.5CKM) WERE OVER WEST AREAS (LAPORTE TO MONTICELLO).
IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS ARE WEST OF HIGHWAY
31 (BASICALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM SOUTH BEND TO PLYMOUTH TO
ROCHESTER). THE STORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG TO POSSIBLY
DAMAGING WINDS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK AND
BECOME VERY DOMINANT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP CAUSE TEMPERATURES
TO RISE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME DROUGHT
FEEDBACK WILL LIKELY EXACERBATE THESE VERY WARM TO CONDITIONS
RESULTING IN HOT TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
80S TO LOWER 90S - POSSIBLY LOCALLY REACHING 95 DEGREES IN URBAN
AREAS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
INHERITED TAFS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE WHEN COMPARED TO THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. ALL EYES ARE ON A UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER WI TRACKING SOUTHEAST. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND INTO NORTHERN IL THIS MORNING. THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT IS LOCATED ALONG THE IL-IN LINE THROUGH THE
MORNING SUCH THAT, WHEN FACTORING IN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER,
THE PROB30 CONTINUES AT KSBN. REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON
THERE APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY AND THE
BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING ELSEWHERE.
I'VE MAINTAINED THE DRY TAF AT KFWA. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE RISK OF AFTERNOON -TSRA. HOWEVER, CONCERNS AT KSBN ARE
IDENTICAL TO KFWA IN THAT REGARD.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...BROWN
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