306
FXUS63 KIWX 131021
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
621 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY.
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S TO AROUND 90.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 148 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TOP THE UPSTREAM RIDGE AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS APPEAR LIKELY WITHIN THE WINDOW FROM 9AM TO 3PM EDT.
MODERATELY UNSTABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (ABOUT 6.5CKM) WERE
OVER WEST AREAS (LAPORTE TO MONTICELLO). IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS ARE WEST OF HIGHWAY 31 (BASICALLY WEST
OF A LINE FROM SOUTH BEND TO PLYMOUTH TO ROCHESTER). THE STORMS
MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK AND
BECOME VERY DOMINANT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP CAUSE TEMPERATURES
TO RISE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME DROUGHT
FEEDBACK WILL LIKELY EXACERBATE THESE VERY WARM TO CONDITIONS
RESULTING IN HOT TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
80S TO LOWER 90S - POSSIBLY LOCALLY REACHING 95 DEGREES IN URBAN
AREAS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 613 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST, APPROACHING NORTHERN
IL. RIGHT-FLANK DEVELOPMENT IS RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY TURN
WHICH HAD BEEN ADVERTISED IN EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THE EASTERN
FLANK IS WEAKENING BUT SHOULD STILL CLIP KSBN LATER THIS
MORNING. INSTABILITY IS LACKING LOCALLY, THUS -SHRA CONTINUES IN
LIEU OF TSRA.
THE DRY TAF AT KFWA CONTINUES WITH MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
LACK OF INSTABILITY AND FORCING TO PROMOTE ISOLATED TSRA.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...BROWN
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