692
FXUS63 KIWX 131723
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
123 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY.
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S TO AROUND 90.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 148 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TOP THE UPSTREAM RIDGE AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS APPEAR LIKELY WITHIN THE WINDOW FROM 9AM TO 3PM EDT.
MODERATELY UNSTABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (ABOUT 6.5CKM) WERE
OVER WEST AREAS (LAPORTE TO MONTICELLO). IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS ARE WEST OF HIGHWAY 31 (BASICALLY WEST
OF A LINE FROM SOUTH BEND TO PLYMOUTH TO ROCHESTER). THE STORMS
MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK AND
BECOME VERY DOMINANT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP CAUSE TEMPERATURES
TO RISE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME DROUGHT
FEEDBACK WILL LIKELY EXACERBATE THESE VERY WARM TO CONDITIONS
RESULTING IN HOT TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
80S TO LOWER 90S - POSSIBLY LOCALLY REACHING 95 DEGREES IN URBAN
AREAS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
PRIMARY AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE HAS
DISSIPATED AND EXITED THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER, MARGINAL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY IN A REGION OF WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCT SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MUCAPE
APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A THUNDER MENTION BUT IT CAN'T BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY AT KSBN. DRY/QUIET WEATHER
RETURNS OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME HIGH-BASED CU EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...AGD
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