897
FXUS63 KIWX 140720
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
320 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
- DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING FRIDAY.
- AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP BELOW 40 PERCENT MOST
DAYS THIS COMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
THERE WAS A VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WITH A LIGHT
EAST FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AND SHOULD KEEP WINDS UNDER 10 MPH. CLOUDS
WITH BASES NEAR 5K TO 6K FEET WERE OVER THE AREA AT THE ONSET OF THE
FORECAST. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT AND THEN DISSIPATE AS
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE INCREASES OVER THE AREA AS REFLECTED IN THE
LATEST GFS BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THERE ARE VERY FEW IF ANY
CHANCES FOR RAIN UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK AS THE LOW AND MID LAYERS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY AND KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN RISE ABOVE 90 DEGREES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30
THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND AS DROUGHT FEEDBACK INCREASES. THE LATEST
GFS INDICATES THE RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL RISE TO NEAR 300 METERS
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS (ANOMALY).
THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN RAPIDLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
LATEST GFS HAS STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH CAPES RISING ABOVE 1000
J/KG SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENT WINDS ARE NOT VERY STRONG,
THESE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRATUS IS HOVERING OVER MUCH OF INDIANA.
A STOUT INVERSION IS NOTED IN THE TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS.
WATER VAPOR DEPICTS A TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS OUGHT TO PERMIT THE STRATUS TO SLOWLY
MIX OUT. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE SO FAR THIS MORNING AND
THE CROSS SECTION GUIDANCE, I'LL ERR ON THE LONG SIDE OF
STRATUS STICKING AROUND AT KFWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.
SINCE KSBN IS CLEAR, THIS INCREASES THE POSSIBILITY OF BR/FG. A
COUPLE OF UPSTREAM SITES ARE REPORTING 4SM TO 6SM. TRENDS WILL
BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...BROWN
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