968
FXUS63 KIWX 141014
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
614 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
- DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING FRIDAY.
- AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP BELOW 40 PERCENT MOST
DAYS THIS COMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
THERE WAS A VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WITH A LIGHT
EAST FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AND SHOULD KEEP WINDS UNDER 10 MPH. CLOUDS
WITH BASES NEAR 5K TO 6K FEET WERE OVER THE AREA AT THE ONSET OF THE
FORECAST. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT AND THEN DISSIPATE AS
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE INCREASES OVER THE AREA AS REFLECTED IN THE
LATEST GFS BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THERE ARE VERY FEW IF ANY
CHANCES FOR RAIN UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK AS THE LOW AND MID LAYERS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY AND KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN RISE ABOVE 90 DEGREES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30
THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND AS DROUGHT FEEDBACK INCREASES. THE LATEST
GFS INDICATES THE RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL RISE TO NEAR 300 METERS
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS (ANOMALY).
THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN RAPIDLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
LATEST GFS HAS STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH CAPES RISING ABOVE 1000
J/KG SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENT WINDS ARE NOT VERY STRONG,
THESE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 608 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
KSBN IS REPORTING A 4 DEGREE DEW POINT DEPRESSION THIS HOUR. AS
A RESULT, HAVE REMOVED THE TEMPO BR.
PESKY VFR STRATUS DECK PERSISTS BUT ITS PRESENTATION ON
SATELLITE IS WANING. THEREFORE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BKN STRATUS
BECOMING SCT/FEW NEAR 14Z OR SO AT KFWA. HIGH PRESSURE TODAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND A LIGHT ESE
WIND. WIND NEAR 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT MAY BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE
OVERALL PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL AS WELL.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...BROWN
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