761
FXUS63 KIWX 150728
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
328 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED VERY WARM THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO START
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
- LITTLE IMPACTFUL RAINFALL WILL ALLOW DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE AND WORSEN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
A VERY STRONG AND PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HELP KEEP
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. TO THE WEST OF THIS SYSTEM, A LARGE UPSTREAM CUTOFF LOW
WILL PERSIST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
LOW WILL HELP THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO STAY ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLIMATOLOGICAL 500 MB HEIGHT
DEPARTURES ARE REMARKABLE, WITH UP TO +400 METERS FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION TO JAMES BAY CANADA (ON THE SOUTH END OF
HUDSON BAY)
GIVEN THE ANTECEDENTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, AFTERNOON SURFACE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES LOCALLY ARE LIKELY TO REACH OR TOP 90
DEGREES, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION, SOME ENERGY FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW
SHOULD REACH THE AREA BY LATE THIS WEEK. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OVERALL RAINFALL SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT AND SHOULD DO
LITTLE TO EASE THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF TRANQUIL
TAFS. THIS MORNING, VISIBILITY GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT MOISTURE
ADVECTION OFF LAKE ERIE PERHAPS BRINING PATCHY FOG INTO
NORTHWEST OH. THIS OUGHT TO STAY EAST OF KFWA (MEDIUM-HIGH
CONFIDENCE), BUT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS WILL BE MONITORED.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...BROWN
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