186
FXUS63 KIWX 061045
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
645 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE MORE WARM DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
- BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. LOWS MAY DIP INTO THE 30S EACH NIGHT
WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY STILL WELL UPSTREAM AND ALIGNED
PARALLEL TO MID/UPPER FLOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE SOME EARNEST
EASTWARD PROGRESS TODAY AS A SECOND JET STREAK DIGS INTO THE BASE OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH. TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL GRADIENT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING LLJ AND ASSOCIATED THETA-E
ADVECTION. MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SUBTLE 300-305K
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN OUR SE HALF
BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY. AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS HIGHLY LIMITED BOTH
ABOVE AND BELOW THIS ZONE HOWEVER AND POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
LIMIT WHATEVER ELEVATED INSTABILITY MIGHT OTHERWISE BE POSSIBLE.
WILL ACQUIESCE TO SOME BROAD-BRUSHED 20 POP'S BUT ANY RAIN WILL BE
VERY LIGHT AND ISOLATED DURING THE DAY. INCREASING MOISTURE/CLOUDS
AND SUBSEQUENT REDUCED MIXING WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.
MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN ARRIVE IN OUR NORTHWEST DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES. A HEALTHY
BAND OF DEEP (925-700MB) FGEN LIGHTS UP OVER CENTRAL MI IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120KT UPPER JET BUT THIS LIKELY ONLY GRAZES OUR
FAR N/NW COUNTIES AIDED BY SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY. LATE ARRIVAL
AND NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT/EXIT OF BETTER FORCING DOES SUGGEST A
WEAKENING TREND THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS
SE. SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY RECOVERS BY LATE TUE MORNING BUT THIS
IS CONFINED IN OUR FAR SE WHERE SURFACE FRONT WILL NOT PASS UNTIL
AROUND 18Z. THE ARRIVAL OF SECONDARY JET STREAK AND SHORTWAVE WILL
MAINTAIN SOME ELEVATED FGEN AND LIGHT SHOWERS IN OUR AREA BUT
SUSPECT MORE WIDESPREAD, HEAVIER RAIN WILL REMAIN JUST SE WHERE
BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY RESIDE. PUTTING EVERYTHING TOGETHER BEST
CHANCES FOR MEANINGFUL RAIN (MORE THAN A TENTH OR SO) WILL BE IN THE
NW LATE THIS EVENING AND SE TUE MORNING WITH OUR CENTRAL CWA LIKELY
GETTING "SKIPPED" WITH JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. THUNDER REMAINS
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY PERIODS BUT LIMITED
MUCAPE VALUES AND INCREASINGLY STABLE CONDITIONS BELOW 850MB IN CAA
WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS. PRECIP WILL EXIT
OUR SE AROUND 00Z TUE EVENING.
MIDWEEK PERIOD STILL FEATURES SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS YIELD LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S
BOTH WED AND THU NIGHTS. SOME PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE BUT A
WIDESPREAD, KILLING FROST/FREEZE STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY. FORECAST
FOR THE WEEKEND REMAINS QUIET. THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT MAY
PASS THROUGH THE AREA AND SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS BUT CHANCES ARE
LOW AND IMPACT NEGLIGIBLE IF IT EVEN OCCURS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS. A
FEW PREFRONTAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT
RESIDUAL DRY AIR WILL KEEP CEILINGS HIGH AND ANY RAIN LIGHT AND
ISOLATED. BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE 00-03Z BUT VFR WILL PERSIST
UNTIL ACTUAL FRONT AND CAA ARRIVE 06-09Z WHEN CEILINGS LIKELY
CRASH BELOW 1 KFT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND TIMING IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAF'S AT THIS POINT.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...AGD
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