177
FXUS63 KIWX 071621
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1221 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE AREA
TODAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
- MUCH COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
60S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. AREAS OF FROST ARE LIKELY.
- WARM CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOW ON OUR NW DOORSTEP AND WILL CROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY TODAY. ONE MINOR CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS
THAT THE FRONT IS PROGRESSING SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WHICH
WILL ALLOW SOME MARGINAL SBCAPE TO BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE CWA BEFORE
THE FRONT PASSES. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE SOLID LINE OF
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS CROSSING OUR ENTIRE CWA ROUGHLY 12-21Z. RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL STILL BE LIGHT GIVEN POOR MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
ASCENT AND OVERALL LACKLUSTER MOISTURE. SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 500
J/KG WILL BE INSUFFICIENT IN SUPPORTING A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN SUCH
POOR FORCING BUT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS CAN'T BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT
IN OUR FAR SE WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. MEANWHILE
MORNING ACTIVITY IN OUR SE WILL WEAKEN AND EXIT WITH TIME. BEST LLJ
CONFLUENCE AND THETA-E ADVECTION NOW LOOK TO REMAIN JUST S/SE OF OUR
AREA, MEANING THE LINE OF SHOWERS WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT WILL BE THE
MAIN "SHOW" FOR OUR CWA. THESE SHOWERS WILL EXIT OUR SE SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.
OTHER MAIN WEATHER CONCERN FOR THIS WEEK WILL BE FROST POTENTIAL WED
AND THU NIGHTS. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID 60S. CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DIP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S BOTH NIGHTS. IT IS STILL A LITTLE MARGINAL FOR A
WIDESPREAD, KILLING FROST BUT AREAS OF FROST ARE APPEARING MORE
LIKELY AND FROST ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS VERY QUIET. A WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD
FRONT APPROACHES ON FRI BUT VERY POOR FORCING AND MOISTURE WARRANT
CONTINUED "SILENT" 10 POP'S. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
A TREND TOWARD PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY CLEARING KSBN BY OR SHORTLY AFTER TAF
ISSUANCE, AND KFWA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY
GUST 15-20 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON POST-FRONTAL, WITH
VFR/DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
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