567
FXUS63 KIWX 072339
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
739 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS ENDING PRIOR TO SUNSET.
- AREAS OF FROST ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
- WARM CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE MID-50S NEAR
THE LAKE, WHILE STILL HOLDING STRONG IN THE 70S IN NORTHWEST OHIO.
THE THUNDER CHANCE HAS DIMINISHED NOTABLY NOW THAT THIS MORNING'S
AREA OF RAIN HAS BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT. AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY, INSTABILITY IS NEGLIGIBLE. OVERALL, BECOMING COOLER
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING TO DROUGHT-
STRICKEN NORTHWEST OHIO AND RAIN ENDING FOR NORTHWEST INDIANA.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
DECREASING WIND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
(NORMAL BEING 45-46), SAVE FOR THE USUAL COLD SPOT OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
MI WHICH MAY SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER-30S. COLDER STILL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN AND 850-
MB TEMPERATURES TUMBLING TO 3C TO 6C. AREAS OF FROST ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE MID 30S. A LAKE SHADOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ELEVATED IN PORTIONS OF LA PORTE AND BERRIEN COUNTIES.
A QUICK LOOK AT CLIMATOLOGY REVEALS MID-30 LOWS ARE SOMEWHAT COMMON
FOR THESE DATES.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING MARKS THE RETURN OF ADDITIONAL WARMTH, THOUGH
NOT QUITE TO THE MAGNITUDE WE'VE RECENTLY EXPERIENCED. HIGHS IN THE
60S MIDWEEK WILL BE JUST SHY OF NORMAL AND GIVE WAY TO A GRADUAL
WARM UP BY THIS WEEKEND. THE ONE HICCUP CONTINUES TO BE A COMPACT
LOW SWEEPING THROUGH MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND WHICH MAY KNOCK DOWN
TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY (AND MAYBE EVEN SOME SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN MI). A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-AIR PATTERN NEXT WEEK YIELDS THE POSSIBILITY
FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE MIDWEST BY LATE NEXT
WEEK, THOUGH STRONG EASTERN US RIDGING COULD WIN OUT, PROLONGING OUR
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 738 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH VACATES THE AREA, THE GENERAL TREND
WILL BE BACK TOWARDS VFR CONDITIONS. ONE THING TO WATCH WILL BE
A SURFACE INSTABILITY TROUGH THAT IS ABLE TO SWING SOUTHWARD
DOWN LAKE MI LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. IF WE HAD
WARMER WATERS OR A COOLER AIRMASS THAT ARRIVES WITH THE TROUGH,
WE COULD END UP WITH LOWER CIGS AS IT SWINGS THROUGH. AT THIS
POINT, THE RAP TIME SECTIONS INDICATE THE CIGS WOULD BE JUST
ABOVE THE MVFR THRESHOLD AND CLOUDS MAY NOT BE NUMEROUS ENOUGH
TO EVEN ELICIT A SCT ON THE ASOS GAUGES.
AS FAR AS WINDS GO, NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT A SLACKENING GRADIENT AND
THEREFORE, WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD KEEP GUSTS BELOW 20 KTS
AND KEEP THEM OUT OF THESE TAFS. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 KTS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...BROWN
AVIATION...ROLLER
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