365
FXUS63 KIWX 081631
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1231 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE INTO FRIDAY WITH FROST
CONCERNS STILL EXISTING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS, CAUSING
A CONTINUATION OF, IF NOT WORSENING OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2025
WE WILL SEE THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE OF TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES IN TO ALLOW
HIGHS TO ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE 30S. FROST CONCERNS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE
SHORT TERM. FORECASTED LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 33 TO 36 DEGREE
RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA 9-12Z THU, WHICH IS IN THE WITH
THRESHOLDS FOR FROST HEADLINES TYPICALLY AT OR BELOW 36 DEGREES.
LARGE RANGE IN MODEL GUIDANCE EXISTS LIKELY LENDING TO WHETHER
FULL DECOUPLING OF WINDS OCCURS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. CURRENT
GRIDS LIE IN THE 25TH TO 50TH PERCENTILE WHICH IS LOWER THAN
MANY OF THE MODELS (BUT NOT NECESSARILY WRONG). WILL MAINTAIN
EITHER AREAS OR PATCHY FROST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT
OVERALL CONSENSUS OF EQUALLY IMPACTED OFFICES WAS TO DEFER
HEADLINES TO THE DAY SHIFT AND CONTINUE TO MESSAGE IN SOCIAL
MEDIA AND HWO. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT THE WARMER TEMPS ALONG
LK MI MAY BE TOO WARM WITH LIGHT NE OR E FLOWS TENDING TO
OVERACHIEVE GIVEN THE PARALLEL OR OFFSHORE FLOW AND FAVORABLE
DRAINAGE AT KBEH. SIMILAR CONCERNS EXIST 9-12Z FRI, BUT THE AXIS
OF COLDEST AIR MAY IMPACT AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
I-69 WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S. SOME HIGH CLOUDS COULD MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT TO ALSO LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL ATTEMPT TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND, BUT
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON ENERGY CURRENTLY IN BRITISH COLUMBIA
TRANSITIONING EAST AND THEN SE INTO LOWER MI BY LATE SAT. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH ANY MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES REMAINING NE OF THE
AREA, WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING A SLOWING OF THE INCREASING HEIGHTS
AND SUBSEQUENT RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL TAKE
HOLD FOR THE NEW WORKWEEK. MODEL BLEND HAS PLACED SLGT CHC POPS IN
NW AREAS JUST OUTSIDE THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD AS FINAL LOCATION
OF THE WESTERN RIDGE REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2025
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER MIDWEST WILL BRING DRY, PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS ARE COMING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS CLOSE TO LAKE
MICHIGAN. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS NEAR 5000 FEET. THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AND GRADUALLY SWITCH FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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