076
FXUS63 KIWX 102348
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
748 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCES (10-30%) FOR RAIN MAINLY NORTH OF I-80/I-90. LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT.
- MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
- NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2025
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN WISCONSIN DOWN THROUGH
CENTRAL IOWA AND KANSAS. THE FRONT AND LEADING WEAK TROUGH OUT
AHEAD OF IT COULD BRING SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY NORTH OF I-80/I-90 (THE REST
OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY). THE HRRR IS A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN OTHER HI- RES MODEL GUIDANCE IN BRINGING SHOWER
ACTIVITY FURTHER INLAND, BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH, RAIN MAY INITIALLY NOT EVEN REACH THE GROUND. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT, LIKELY 0.05" OR LESS (POSSIBLY UP TO
0.10" IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS). LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN (10-30%)
PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT ARRIVES TO OUR AREA
AROUND 06Z SATURDAY, WITH ONLY LIGHT SPRINKLES POSSIBLE AS IT
PASSES THROUGH. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME WAA (DUE TO LIGHT
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING) WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MUCH MORE MILD OVERNIGHT THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.
NO FROST IS EXPECTED AS LOWS ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S DUE TO A LACK OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.
VERY LIMITED CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS. THE OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO BE PREDOMINANTLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK; MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S BEFORE THE RIDGE FLATTENS
OUT.
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK IN
REGARDS TO IF WE WILL BE ABLE TO GET ANY SYSTEMS INTO THE AREA. SOME
RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY (STILL VERY
UNCERTAIN ON TIMING AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
WORK WITH) WITH SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
HAVE STUCK WITH THE NBM FOR NOW, WHICH HAS LOW CHANCES (10-30%)
FOR RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2025
THE COMBINATION OF BROAD ADVECTIVE FORCING AND AN AXIS OF PRE-
FRONTAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FROM FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA INTO SW
LOWER MICHIGAN HAS BEEN ENOUGH FOR PRIMARILY ONLY LOWERING VFR
CIGS THIS EVENING. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 01Z, BUT
BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STILL APPEARS TO BE IN THE
02Z-05Z TIMEFRAME AS A NARROW BAND OF POOLED FRONTAL MOISTURE
MAY INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT OF STRONGER SYNOPTIC FORCING
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS FORCING WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY KSBN WHERE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE JUST A BRIEF VCSH MENTION AS DRY SUBCLOUD
LAYER SHOULD LIMIT MEASURABLE PRECIP. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST A LOW PROBABILITY OF BRIEF MVFR
CIGS ALONG THIS POOLED FRONTAL MOISTURE AXIS. DRY CONDITIONS IN
STORE FOR SATURDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LMZ043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LMZ046.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...MARSILI
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