063
FXUS63 KIWX 110541
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
141 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY TODAY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
- MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
- NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2025
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN WISCONSIN DOWN THROUGH
CENTRAL IOWA AND KANSAS. THE FRONT AND LEADING WEAK TROUGH OUT
AHEAD OF IT COULD BRING SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY NORTH OF I-80/I-90 (THE REST
OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY). THE HRRR IS A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN OTHER HI- RES MODEL GUIDANCE IN BRINGING SHOWER
ACTIVITY FURTHER INLAND, BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH, RAIN MAY INITIALLY NOT EVEN REACH THE GROUND. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT, LIKELY 0.05" OR LESS (POSSIBLY UP TO
0.10" IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS). LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN (10-30%)
PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT ARRIVES TO OUR AREA
AROUND 06Z SATURDAY, WITH ONLY LIGHT SPRINKLES POSSIBLE AS IT
PASSES THROUGH. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME WAA (DUE TO LIGHT
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING) WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MUCH MORE MILD OVERNIGHT THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.
NO FROST IS EXPECTED AS LOWS ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S DUE TO A LACK OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.
VERY LIMITED CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS. THE OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO BE PREDOMINANTLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK; MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S BEFORE THE RIDGE FLATTENS
OUT.
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK IN
REGARDS TO IF WE WILL BE ABLE TO GET ANY SYSTEMS INTO THE AREA. SOME
RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY (STILL VERY
UNCERTAIN ON TIMING AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
WORK WITH) WITH SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
HAVE STUCK WITH THE NBM FOR NOW, WHICH HAS LOW CHANCES (10-30%)
FOR RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES WITH DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA (JUST NORTHWEST OF KFWA AS OF THIS
WRITING). EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME MORE NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD, GENERALLY AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THERE ARE A FEW
OBSERVATIONS AROUND 3000-3500FT AT THE MOMENT-INCLUDING JUST
UPSTREAM OF KFWA, BUT IT SEEMS MORE INTERMITTENT. HAVE SCT035
FOR NOW, WILL AMEND IF IT APPEARS THE MVFR WILL BE WORTH A
TEMPO. OTHERWISE, EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ046.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...MCD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page