407
FXUS63 KIWX 111051
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
651 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY TODAY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
- MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
- NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
PRE FRONTAL TROUGH CLEARED THE AREA PRIOR TO 6Z WITH SOME LIGHT
RETURNS NOTED ON RADAR. WHILE A STRAY SPRINKLE MIGHT HAVE OCCURRED
15 TO 20 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS KEPT ANYTHING MEASURABLE AT
BAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS HAS OCCURRED
WITH VERY SHALLOW LOW TO MID 50S SHOWING UP PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
THE MAIN FRONT WHICH HAD A BRIEF VERY LIGHT SHOWER ALONG THE LAKE
SHORE. SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR NEAR OR AFTER SUNRISE ALLOWING TEMPS
TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S AS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CAA OCCURS BEHIND THE FRONT DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A CLOSED UPPER
LOW TO OUR NE.
NO SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS EXIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST
THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING KEEPS ANT
DISTURBANCES NW OF THE AREA. A WEAK FRONT MAKES AN ATTEMPT TO ENTER
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS SOMEWHAT. MOISTURE
WILL BE CUR OFF, LIKELY RESULTING THE NBM BASED SLGT CHC TO LOW CHC
POPS BEING OVERDONE. RIDGING BUILDS BACK NORTH INTO THE PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY WORKS EAST TO MAINTAIN DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THEREAFTER, A POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN BEGINS TO SETUP WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TO OUR WEST
FOR THE NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH SIGNS OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POSSIBLY MAKING A RETURN. MODELS VARY ON POTENTIAL
IMPACTS TO THE AREA, MOST OF WHICH WOULD BE CONFINED TO NW
AREAS. LATER PERIODS RIDDLED WITH SLGT CHC AND CHC POPS AS A
RESULT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 644 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AT KFWA/KSBN THIS PERIOD, WITH N-NE WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE EAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THERE ARE FEW/SCT LOWER CLOUDS BETWEEN 1500-2500FT AND AROUND
5000FT NEAR KFWA THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECT THESE TO REMAIN MORE
SCATTERED AND DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OUTSIDE OF HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME MODELS HINT AT BR DEVELOPMENT AT KFWA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD (9-12Z), WITH VISIBILITY BETWEEN
4-6SM-HOWEVER LEFT OUT FOR NOW GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE. IT'S
POSSIBLE WINDS STAY UP AROUND 4-5KTS WHICH COULD LIMIT BR.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-
046.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...MCD
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