957
FXUS63 KIWX 112316
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
716 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
- MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH ON TUESDAY,
BRINGING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S BY
MIDWEEK.
- DROUGHT PERSISTS THIS WEEK AS DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. LOW
CHANCES (10-30%) FOR RAIN RETURN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
UNFORTUNATELY, THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNT OBSERVED YESTERDAY WAS
0.03" IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST CWA. AS DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK, THE ONGOING DROUGHT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND
POTENTIALLY WORSEN (ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT ARE ALREADY IN SEVERE
TO EXTREME DROUGHT). AS OF RIGHT NOW, FORT WAYNE AND SOUTH BEND ARE
ON TRACK TO BE IN THE TOP 10 DRIEST OCTOBERS ON RECORD IN 125+
YEARS.
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL EXPAND OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE COMING DAYS, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATE WAA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS NEAR 70 ARE ON TAP FOR
SUNDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S ON MONDAY. THE RIDGE FLATTENS ON TUESDAY, ALLOWING FOR A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIMIT DIURNAL
HEATING IN THE NORTHWEST; HIGHS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE IN THE
60S WHILE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE US 24 CORRIDOR WILL APPROACH
THE MID 70S BEFORE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. MORE SEASONABLE AIR
ARRIVES MID TO LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AREA-WIDE.
A FEW SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH TUESDAY'S FRONT, ALTHOUGH
BETTER CHANCES (ALBEIT STILL LOW) FOR RAIN COULD ARRIVE NEXT FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL HAS LOTS OF
DISCREPANCIES THIS FAR OUT AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE OR IF A SYSTEM EVEN DEVELOPS AT ALL. THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS BUT FOR NOW, IT APPEARS
AS THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 5 TO 7
DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 715 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS WILL HELP DISSIPATE AN INVERTED TROUGH TYPE FEATURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND ALLOW FOR A MORE VEERED EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TAKE SHAPE. A STRATOCU DECK PERSISTS EARLY
THIS EVENING FROM IN/MI STATELINE TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN WHERE CIGS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE 3-4K FT RANGE. THE
VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP BULK OF STRATOCU
NORTH OF KSBN THIS EVENING. SOME PATCHY STRATOCU MAY WORK IN
FROM EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHEAST INDIANA OVERNIGHT, BUT
BASES OF THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BE VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG EARLY SUNDAY AM, BUT WOULD EXPECT GREATER CHANCES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MI. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE SUNDAY,
WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...MARSILI
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