829
FXUS63 KIWX 120702
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
302 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
- MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH ON TUESDAY,
BRINGING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S BY
MIDWEEK.
- DROUGHT PERSISTS THIS WEEK AS DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. LOW
CHANCES (20-40%) FOR RAIN RETURN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL HELP BRING AN OVERALL QUIET PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK AND POSSIBLY NEXT WEEKEND.
INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL TAKE HOLD INTO TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
TOPPING OUT NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 70, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL EJECT FROM
A DEEP WEST COAST TROUGH AND RIDE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO SIGNAL SOME FLATTENING OF HEIGHTS AND EVENTUALLY A
BRIEF TRANSITION TO MORE OF A NW FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK,
MOISTURE STARVED FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME SLIGHT
CHC POPS HAVE BEEN IN THE FORECAST FOR A FEW DAYS, BUT GUIDANCE IS
BACKING OFF ON THESE. THE MAIN IMPACT TO THE AREA WILL BE A RETURN
TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S WED AND THU.
MODELS AGREE TO SOME EXTENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDING
BACK IN FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DISCREPANCIES REMAIN REGARDING HANDLING OF THE DEEP
CENTRAL US TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN TO INTRODUCE A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES INTO THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE QUALITY AND
TIMING/TRACK OF WAVES WILL BE TO DETERMINE IF WE HAVE ANY POTENTIAL
FOR NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT, CHC POPS REMAIN IN
PLACE MUCH OF THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL BE FINE TUNED OVER TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT FLOW GENERALLY FROM THE EAST (MORE NORTHEAST AT
KFWA, MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT KSBN THROUGH THE PERIOD). IT'S
POSSIBLE WE SEE SOME BR TOWARDS THIS MORNING, BUT LEFT OUT OF
THE TAF FOR NOW AS MOST OF GUIDANCE ONLY DROPS TO ABOUT 6SM.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...MCD
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