425
FXUS63 KIWX 121045
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
645 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, MAINLY NORTH OF US
30. VISIBILITY IN DENSE FOG WILL BE AROUND ONE HALF TO ONE
QUARTER OF A MILE. BE CAUTIOUS IF TRAVELLING.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S.
- DROUGHT PERSISTS THIS WEEK AS DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. LOW
CHANCES (20-40%) FOR RAIN RETURN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL HELP BRING AN OVERALL QUIET PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK AND POSSIBLY NEXT WEEKEND.
INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL TAKE HOLD INTO TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
TOPPING OUT NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 70, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL EJECT FROM
A DEEP WEST COAST TROUGH AND RIDE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO SIGNAL SOME FLATTENING OF HEIGHTS AND EVENTUALLY A
BRIEF TRANSITION TO MORE OF A NW FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK,
MOISTURE STARVED FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME SLIGHT
CHC POPS HAVE BEEN IN THE FORECAST FOR A FEW DAYS, BUT GUIDANCE IS
BACKING OFF ON THESE. THE MAIN IMPACT TO THE AREA WILL BE A RETURN
TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S WED AND THU.
MODELS AGREE TO SOME EXTENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDING
BACK IN FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DISCREPANCIES REMAIN REGARDING HANDLING OF THE DEEP
CENTRAL US TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN TO INTRODUCE A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES INTO THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE QUALITY AND
TIMING/TRACK OF WAVES WILL BE TO DETERMINE IF WE HAVE ANY POTENTIAL
FOR NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT, CHC POPS REMAIN IN
PLACE MUCH OF THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL BE FINE TUNED OVER TIME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 624 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS, WITH BRIEF DROP
TO MVFR POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
(MORE ESE AT KSBN/ENE AT KFWA) THROUGH THE PERIOD, BECOMING
VARIABLE AT TIMES. OTHERWISE, ONLY CONCERN MAY BE FOG/BR
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING
(AT MAINLY KFWA TOMORROW). SEVERAL SITES NORTH AND EAST OF THE
TERMINALS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MVFR RANGE OR LESS, WITH SITES
IN MICHIGAN AT 1/4 TO 1/2SM, BUT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS BOTH
SITES AROUND 6SM OR GREATER. ADDED A TEMPO FOR 5SM AT BOTH
SITES GIVEN TRENDS OF THE SURROUNDING OBSERVATIONS AND WE HAVE
JUST OVER AN HOUR BEFORE SUNRISE.
LATE TONIGHT KFWA IS MORE LIKELY TO DROP INTO MVFR OR POSSIBLY
EVEN IFR AFTER 9Z MONDAY MORNING GIVEN LIGHT/NEARLY CALM WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. KSBN MAY DROP TO AROUND 6SM BRIEFLY BUT
HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING MORE EXPANSIVE HIGH CLOUD
COVERAGE, SO CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...MCD
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