706
FXUS63 KIWX 121659
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1259 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S.
- DROUGHT PERSISTS THIS WEEK AS DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. LOW
CHANCES (20-40%) FOR RAIN RETURN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL HELP BRING AN OVERALL QUIET PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK AND POSSIBLY NEXT WEEKEND.
INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL TAKE HOLD INTO TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
TOPPING OUT NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 70, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL EJECT FROM
A DEEP WEST COAST TROUGH AND RIDE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO SIGNAL SOME FLATTENING OF HEIGHTS AND EVENTUALLY A
BRIEF TRANSITION TO MORE OF A NW FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK,
MOISTURE STARVED FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME SLIGHT
CHC POPS HAVE BEEN IN THE FORECAST FOR A FEW DAYS, BUT GUIDANCE IS
BACKING OFF ON THESE. THE MAIN IMPACT TO THE AREA WILL BE A RETURN
TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S WED AND THU.
MODELS AGREE TO SOME EXTENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDING
BACK IN FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DISCREPANCIES REMAIN REGARDING HANDLING OF THE DEEP
CENTRAL US TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN TO INTRODUCE A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES INTO THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE QUALITY AND
TIMING/TRACK OF WAVES WILL BE TO DETERMINE IF WE HAVE ANY POTENTIAL
FOR NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT, CHC POPS REMAIN IN
PLACE MUCH OF THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL BE FINE TUNED OVER TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL MAINTAIN
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW DIURNAL
CU THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS
A WEAK TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. SOME BR
IS POSSIBLE AT KFWA EARLY MON MORNING BUT CHANCES ARE MUCH
LOWER GIVEN INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND A NONZERO GRADIENT WIND.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...AGD
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