918
FXUS63 KIWX 121833
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
233 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS
WEEK, WITH MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE WARMEST DAYS.
- CHANCES (30-50%) FOR RAIN NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
OUR OVERALL QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEK WITH
CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGING REMAINING THE DOMINANT FEATURE.
EASTERLY NEAR SURFACE FLOW BROUGHT SOME MARINE LAYER FOG/STRATUS
INTO OUR MI AND FAR NW OH COUNTIES EARLIER THIS MORNING, WITH
PATCHY/SHALLOW FOG ELSEWHERE. A SIMILAR SETUP IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR XOVER VALUES. OPTED TO ADD IN SOME PATCHY FOG AS A RESULT,
BEST CHANCES NEAR THE MICHIGAN BORDER.
RENEWED TROUGHING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST US
SENDS A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOME SUBTLE MID LEVEL FGEN ATTEMPTS TO CLIP THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT UNDER A 120 KT UPPER JET DIVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY HOWEVER WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING A PERIOD
OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND COOLER (NEAR NORMAL) POST-FRONTAL TEMPS
INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN UPPER RIDGING FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND A BROAD MOISTURE PLUME
TAKING AIM ON THE REGION. THIS BRINGS NEEDED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS BY THIS WEEKEND, THOUGH DETAILS
REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE AND ORIENTATION OF THE MAIN WAVE AND
ATTENDANT SFC REFLECTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH NO CHANGES TO
NBM BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS (30-50%).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL MAINTAIN
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW DIURNAL
CU THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS
A WEAK TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. SOME BR
IS POSSIBLE AT KFWA EARLY MON MORNING BUT CHANCES ARE MUCH
LOWER GIVEN INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND A NONZERO GRADIENT WIND.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD
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