283
FXUS63 KIWX 131710
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
110 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN
BETWEEN AS WELL AS FOR THE WEEKEND.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS (30 TO 55%)
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL FLATTEN TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN REBUILD BACK TO
THE WEST OF THE REGION AS A WEAK TROUGH PASSES TO OUR NE. A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT
MAJORITY OF ANY PRECIP (WHICH WILL STILL BE LIGHT) LOOKS TO
FIZZLE AS IT ARRIVES IN OUR NW COUNTIES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT,
ENCOUNTERING A DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. MODEL BLENDS STILL HOLDING
ONTO SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS IN THESE AREA, WHICH WILL BE LEFT
ALONE FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS IN THE MID 60S WED AND MID 60S NE TO LOW 70S SW AS THE
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD FRIDAY AND THEN EAST SATURDAY
WITH AN INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S. AS THIS FLOW CONTINUES, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH AND SERIES OF WAVES ATTEMPT TO BRING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST. MODEL BLEND
INTRODUCED SOME LOW END LIKELY POPS IN NW AREAS SAT INTO SAT
EVENING, LIKELY KEYING IN ON THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS WITH A
STRONGER WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA VS MAJORITY OF THE TROUGH
STILL TO THE WEST ON THE ECMWF. ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE OVERDONE,
WILL LEAVE IT IN AS IT IS LIKELY TO KEEP CHANGING IN THE COMING
DAYS. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
FOG HAS CLEARED AND VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/BR
CONDITIONS IN FOG AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING AT BOTH KFWA/KSBN BUT
IT WON'T BE UNTIL AFTER 6Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO DID NOT INCLUDE
AT THIS TIME.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...FISHER
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...COBB
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