025
FXUS63 KIWX 141148
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
748 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 69 WILL CLEAR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE.
- HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND AGAIN FRI INTO SAT
WITH A BRIEF DIP INTO THE 60S FOR WED AND THU.
- CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SOME NEEDED RAINFALL IS INCREASING SAT
AFTERNOON INTO SAT NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
CLOUDS ALONG/AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE FRONT WERE IMPACTING A LARGE
PART OF THE AREA, WHICH HAS BEEN LIMITING FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS
FAR. A FEW LOCATIONS IN NW OHIO/FAR NE INDIANA ARE HINTING AT
SOME DEVELOPMENT BUT CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD IMPACTS IS LOWER
THAN PAST DAYS. MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDS OVERNIGHT TO LIMIT THE
MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SORT OF
HEADLINES.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AS MID
LEVEL FORCING ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO
BRING IN AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS, MAYBE AS FAR SOUTH AS US-
6. ALTHOUGH FORCING IS DECENT, WORRIED THAT LOWER LEVELS MAY BE TOO
DRY TO ALLOW MUCH, IF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP DESPITE MODELS SHOWING
POCKETS OF UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH CLOSER TO LAKE MI. WILL MAINTAIN
SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z WED, BUT EVEN IF IT DOES MAKE
IT IN, THERE WILL BE NO IMPACTS TO THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN A BRIEF RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 60S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. UNLIKE THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, A STRONG
UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL EDGE EAST AND ALLOW AT LEAST SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN, WHICH SHOULD BE IN PLACE AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
MOVE NE OUT OF THE TROUGH. WHILE TIMING AND STRENGTH DETAILS ARE
STILL SOMEWHAT MURKY SIGNS SEEM TO POINT TOWARDS A DECENT CHANCE OF
NEEDED RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SAT NIGHT. AMOUNTS VARY, AS WOULD BE EXPECTED, WITH
WIDESPREAD 0.5 TO 1" IN SOME MODELS AND MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIP
BRINGING SEVERAL INCHES TO SOME AREAS. THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM
AND OVERALL WIND FIELDS COULD ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF
AND ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE SYSTEM, WITH A PUSH OF EVEN COLDER, ALBEIT
BRIEF, AIR. PLENTY OF TIME TO SORT THINGS OUT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GIVEN PROXIMITY TO SUNRISE SUSPECT WE WON'T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF BR/FG AT KFWA OR KSBN. KSBN IS STILL BENEATH THE 5KFT
OVERCAST DECK, AND KFWA IS ON THE EDGE OF IT. IT'S POSSIBLE
THESE CEILINGS INCH INTO KFWA-BUT THE THICKEST DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS TO BE STALLED JUST WEST OF THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE, FLOW
WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ONCE WE GET INTO
DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HAVE A
PROB30 FOR RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING AT KSBN BETWEEN 9-12Z GIVEN
LOWER CONFIDENCE (IT COULD REMAIN JUST NORTH/WEST OF THE
TERMINAL).
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...MCD
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