262
FXUS63 KIWX 150007
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
807 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY
OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN.
- COOL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF WARMING TREND.
- THERE IS A 60-70% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY FOR NORTHWEST
INDIANA, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM AND WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
A 60-KNOT 500MB JET TRACKING THROUGH MICHIGAN PROVIDING FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH AT
LEAST DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A
STOUT DRY LAYER BELOW 8K FT THAT DOES MOISTEN DOWN TO ABOUT 4K FT BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SUGGESTS VIRGA CAN TRANSITION TO A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AROUND DAYBREAK. NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE SHOWERS. THE
SHOWER CHANCE WILL BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO MICHIANA, IN BEST
PROXIMITY TO SATURDAY AND THE UPPER-LEVEL JET.
NOTABLY COOLER BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER BRIEF WARM UP TO END THE WEEK
THANKS TO A PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN. COULD SEE LOWS IN THE 30S
FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL MICHIGAN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
BENEFICIAL RAIN (AND THUNDERSTORMS) LOOK PROMISING SATURDAY AS A
DEEP LOW OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE SPREADS AN EXPANSIVE COLD FRONT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. ONE POSSIBLE FAILURE POINT IN
THESE PATTERNS IS ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SATURDAY COULD ROB POLEWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO OUR AREA.
OTHERWISE, ADDITIONAL CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MAY
PROVIDE CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES INTO SUNDAY. SHARPLY COOLER BEHIND
THIS FRONT WITH HIGHS HARDLY REACHING 60 SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
BROAD ADVECTIVE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER MIDWEST SHORT
WAVE IS ALLOWING FOR BROAD AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
WISCONSIN. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS
IT TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND WILL RESULT IN
ADVECTIVE FORCING WIND FIELD TO BECOME MORE FRONTOGENETIC IN
NATURE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRECIP COVERAGE ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA STILL APPEARS TO BE LIMITED OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AS OUTSIDE OF THIS LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
FORCING, LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK.
IN ADDITION, MOISTURE ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FORCING
WILL BE PRIMARILY ELEVATED IN NATURE. GIVEN EXPECTED LIGHT
NATURE OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AND LIMITED COVERAGE, WILL CONTINUE TO
OMIT MENTION WITH THE 00Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BROWN
AVIATION...MARSILI
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