740
FXUS63 KIWX 150559
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
159 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY
OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN.
- COOL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF WARMING TREND.
- THERE IS A 60-70% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY FOR NORTHWEST
INDIANA, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM AND WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
A 60-KNOT 500MB JET TRACKING THROUGH MICHIGAN PROVIDING FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH AT
LEAST DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A
STOUT DRY LAYER BELOW 8K FT THAT DOES MOISTEN DOWN TO ABOUT 4K FT BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SUGGESTS VIRGA CAN TRANSITION TO A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AROUND DAYBREAK. NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE SHOWERS. THE
SHOWER CHANCE WILL BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO MICHIANA, IN BEST
PROXIMITY TO SATURDAY AND THE UPPER-LEVEL JET.
NOTABLY COOLER BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER BRIEF WARM UP TO END THE WEEK
THANKS TO A PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN. COULD SEE LOWS IN THE 30S
FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL MICHIGAN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
BENEFICIAL RAIN (AND THUNDERSTORMS) LOOK PROMISING SATURDAY AS A
DEEP LOW OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE SPREADS AN EXPANSIVE COLD FRONT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. ONE POSSIBLE FAILURE POINT IN
THESE PATTERNS IS ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SATURDAY COULD ROB POLEWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO OUR AREA.
OTHERWISE, ADDITIONAL CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MAY
PROVIDE CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES INTO SUNDAY. SHARPLY COOLER BEHIND
THIS FRONT WITH HIGHS HARDLY REACHING 60 SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT, WITH
CEILINGS AROUND 4-10KFT. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT KSBN AROUND
11Z-18Z, BUT WITH A DEEPER DRY LAYER AT THE SURFACE, THEY WILL
ARE LIKELY TO BE LIGHT/NON-IMPACTFUL. IF WE CANNOT OVERCOME THE
DRY AIR WITH WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION TONIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST,
IT MAY REMAIN DRY OR BE LIMITED TO SPRINKLES.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...BROWN
AVIATION...MCD
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