084
FXUS63 KIWX 152320
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
720 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DECREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT AND REMAINING COOL.
- TRENDING WARMER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- BREEZY THIS WEEKEND WITH A 70% TO 80% CHANCE OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2025
UPPER LEVEL FORCING PROVED DOMINANT THIS MORNING RESULTING IN A
FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN. HARDLY A DROUGHT BUSTER, BUT
WELCOME NONETHELESS. THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE IS NOW EAST OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY SETTLING IN. PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER REMAINS BUT TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS DO INDICATE SKIES
GRADUALLY CLEAR TONIGHT. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AT LEAST PATCHY
FOG TONIGHT OVER FAR NORTHEAST INDIANA AND ADJACENT AREAS WHERE
THERE IS NOT ONLY RENEWED SURFACE MOISTURE BUT SMALL DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AS WELL.
SUNSHINE, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING, AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OFF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO 70
THURSDAY. THIS BRIEF WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER-AIR PATTERN BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH A TOWERING RIDGE
OVER THE MIDWEST AND A DEEP LOW OVER WYOMING. THIS LOW EVENTUALLY
WRAPS UP OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE BUT ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS COLD FRONT BECOMES
THE FOCUS FOR CYCLOGENESIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. THIS STORM SYSTEM
WOULD BRING MUCH- NEEDED RAIN TO OUR AREA ALONG WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS (INSTABILITY IS A LIMITING FACTOR). DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK AND DEPTH OF THE SURFACE LOW, IT COULD BE WINDY THIS
WEEKEND WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS.
SHARPLY COOLER BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO REACH 60 DEGREES TO BEGIN THE NEW WEEK. ADDITIONAL
RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS PROGRESSIVE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2025
STRATUS DECK TRAPPED UNDER STRONG FRONTAL INVERSION AIDED BY
COOL/MOIST NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT SW AND
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY HOVER
AROUND 3 KFT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY CLIMBING
AFTER 02-03Z. THERE IS A CHANCE THIS STRATUS DECK COULD STALL OR
SHIFT NE AGAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
WEAKENS AND VEERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW GIVEN LACK OF SUPPORT AMONG
MOST GUIDANCE BUT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED IMMENSELY WITH
THIS SETUP ALREADY. WILL MAINTAIN A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BUT WATCH THAT POTENTIAL CLOSELY. IF STRATUS DOES HOLD OR
REDEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING THEN CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BE
JUST ABOVE 3 KFT ANYWAY. THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS
SCATTERING OUT BY LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AS MIXING RAMPS UP.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BROWN
AVIATION...AGD
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