491
FXUS63 KIWX 160607
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
207 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DECREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT AND REMAINING COOL.
- TRENDING WARMER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- BREEZY THIS WEEKEND WITH A 70% TO 80% CHANCE OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2025
UPPER LEVEL FORCING PROVED DOMINANT THIS MORNING RESULTING IN A
FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN. HARDLY A DROUGHT BUSTER, BUT
WELCOME NONETHELESS. THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE IS NOW EAST OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY SETTLING IN. PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER REMAINS BUT TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS DO INDICATE SKIES
GRADUALLY CLEAR TONIGHT. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AT LEAST PATCHY
FOG TONIGHT OVER FAR NORTHEAST INDIANA AND ADJACENT AREAS WHERE
THERE IS NOT ONLY RENEWED SURFACE MOISTURE BUT SMALL DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AS WELL.
SUNSHINE, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING, AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OFF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO 70
THURSDAY. THIS BRIEF WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER-AIR PATTERN BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH A TOWERING RIDGE
OVER THE MIDWEST AND A DEEP LOW OVER WYOMING. THIS LOW EVENTUALLY
WRAPS UP OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE BUT ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS COLD FRONT BECOMES
THE FOCUS FOR CYCLOGENESIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. THIS STORM SYSTEM
WOULD BRING MUCH- NEEDED RAIN TO OUR AREA ALONG WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS (INSTABILITY IS A LIMITING FACTOR). DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK AND DEPTH OF THE SURFACE LOW, IT COULD BE WINDY THIS
WEEKEND WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS.
SHARPLY COOLER BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO REACH 60 DEGREES TO BEGIN THE NEW WEEK. ADDITIONAL
RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS PROGRESSIVE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES, WITH THE STRATUS
DECK THAT WAS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS (CURRENTLY BKN/OVC
3500-4500FT) CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWESTWARD. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THIS STRATUS COULD REBUILD
LATE TONIGHT ONCE FLOW VEERS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM-BUT
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW WITH DRY AIR STILL FILTERING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. MAINTAINED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR NOW, BUT
WILL AMEND IF TRENDS SUGGEST THE STRATUS REBUILDING.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BROWN
AVIATION...MCD
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