044
FXUS63 KIWX 170828
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
428 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
- GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE.
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST
TODAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE 70S
TODAY, AND THEN 80S SATURDAY. THE HIGHS IN THE 80S SATURDAY
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE RECORD HIGH OF 86 AT FT WAYNE SET IN
1908. SOME CONCERN TODAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES WITH AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35 PERCENT IN
MOST AREAS. THE CONCERN FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES FOR
SATURDAY. THE SPC HAS CONTINUED THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS SATURDAY. SEVERAL FACTORS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE TO
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING STRONG MID
LEVEL WINDS, A STRONG COLD FRONT, AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL TROF BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A
LOT OF ENERGY IN AND NEAR THE BASE OF ITS TROF. BUFKIT PROFILES
SHOW LIMITED CAPES WITH MAX CAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG. HOWEVER,
WITH VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR, A REASONABLE CASE CAN
MAKE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED TORNADOS. THE SPC
DOES HAVE A >2% TORNADO RISK SOUTHWEST OF WARSAW. WPC HAS
INDICATED >2" OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER
NORTHERN INDIANA. AT THIS TIME, NORTHERN INDIANA AND
SURROUNDING AREAS HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING ON OF THE DRIEST PERIODS
IN 130 YEARS FOR THE PERIOD SINCE EARLY AUGUST. FLOODING IS NOT
LIKELY IN MAIN STEM RIVERS; HOWEVER, LOCALLY HEAVY COULD BRING
LOCAL FLOODING TO URBAN AREAS. MORE LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
AT TIMES FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH INCREASED MOISTURE ALOFT WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE AREA.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHER
THAN THAT, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...ANDERSEN
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