778
FXUS63 KIWX 032015
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
315 PM EST MON NOV 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES COULD ALLOW ANY FIRES TO SPREAD OUT OF CONTROL.
EXERCISE CAUTION IF PLANNING TO BURN LEAVES TODAY.
- HIGHS THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN FINALLY RETURNS ON FRIDAY.
- TURNING COLDER BY SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST MON NOV 3 2025
MAIN WEATHER IMPACTS TODAY WILL BE THE BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS.
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON GETTING DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S THERE IS THE POTENTIAL HAZARD FOR FIRE
SPREAD. SO BEST TO HOLD OFF ON ANY BURNING TO AVOID THAT RISK.
TOMORROW, DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN BUT WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER WHICH SHOULD MINIMIZE THE FIRE SPREAD RISK.
WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
BUT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL WARM AIR ADVECTION COUPLED WITH
ANOTHER QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE, SIMILAR TO THE SYSTEM THAT
MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT, HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL GET
INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA AND LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
ONLY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM, GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE.
AREAS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IN AND SOUTHERN MI LOOK TO SEE THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT AGAIN A FEW
LIGHT SPRINKLES WOULD NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA.
A BIT DEEPER TROUGH TRANSITING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH POTENTIALLY A QUARTER OF AN
INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH BEING POSSIBLE. EVEN A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
HOWEVER THE DIURNAL TIMING WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.
A DEEPER, COLDER, AND MORE DYNAMIC TROUGH LOOKS TO DROP
SOUTHWARD DOWN FROM THE HUDSON BAY CANADA REGION EARLY SUNDAY.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE ONLY IN THE 40S AND
LOWS ON MONDAY MORNING DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S. WITH THE
STILL RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A LAKE
EFFECT CONDUCIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THE FIRST SNOWS OF THE
SEASON WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR ANY CHANGES BUT THE GUIDANCE HAS SOME
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPMENT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1144 AM EST MON NOV 3 2025
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
INCOMING COLD FRONT ARE CAUSING BREEZY WEST WINDS AREA-WIDE
TODAY. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ALONG THE US 30
CORRIDOR AND MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. EVEN AFTER THE FRONT HAS
PASSED THROUGH, WEST WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 TO 20
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. WINDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. VFR CEILINGS
PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE TAF PERIOD, ALTHOUGH MORE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...ANDERSEN
AVIATION...JOHNSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page