430
FXUS63 KIWX 040533
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1233 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEK. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON FRIDAY.
- TURNING COLDER BY SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST MON NOV 3 2025
MAIN WEATHER IMPACTS TODAY WILL BE THE BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS.
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON GETTING DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S THERE IS THE POTENTIAL HAZARD FOR FIRE
SPREAD. SO BEST TO HOLD OFF ON ANY BURNING TO AVOID THAT RISK.
TOMORROW, DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN BUT WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER WHICH SHOULD MINIMIZE THE FIRE SPREAD RISK.
WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
BUT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL WARM AIR ADVECTION COUPLED WITH
ANOTHER QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE, SIMILAR TO THE SYSTEM THAT
MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT, HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL GET
INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA AND LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
ONLY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM, GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE.
AREAS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IN AND SOUTHERN MI LOOK TO SEE THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT AGAIN A FEW
LIGHT SPRINKLES WOULD NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA.
A BIT DEEPER TROUGH TRANSITING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH POTENTIALLY A QUARTER OF AN
INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH BEING POSSIBLE. EVEN A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
HOWEVER THE DIURNAL TIMING WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.
A DEEPER, COLDER, AND MORE DYNAMIC TROUGH LOOKS TO DROP
SOUTHWARD DOWN FROM THE HUDSON BAY CANADA REGION EARLY SUNDAY.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE ONLY IN THE 40S AND
LOWS ON MONDAY MORNING DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S. WITH THE
STILL RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A LAKE
EFFECT CONDUCIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THE FIRST SNOWS OF THE
SEASON WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR ANY CHANGES BUT THE GUIDANCE HAS SOME
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPMENT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR DEVELOPS AS MOMENTUM EVENTUALLY REACHES
THE LOWER LEVELS. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE INCLUDED WIND SHEAR LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LMZ043.
DISCUSSION...ANDERSEN
AVIATION...SKIPPER
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