840
FXUS63 KIWX 110604
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
104 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. ROADS WILL BE SLICK AND
SNOW COVERED. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED WITHIN LAKE EFFECT
BANDS. IF TRAVELLING, ALLOW FOR EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR
DESTINATION.
- LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY BUT NO
ACCUMULATION OR IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED.
- THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025
ON RADAR IMAGERY, A SINGLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND CAN BE SEEN
CURRENTLY IMPACTING OUR FAR NORTHWEST CWA, INCLUDING BERRIEN, LA
PORTE, STARKE AND PULASKI COUNTIES. INDOT WEBCAMS SHOW NEAR-WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS ALONG THE I-94 AND I-80 CORRIDORS IN FAR NW INDIANA. WITH
NORTHWEST/WEST WINDS, THE BAND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST/EAST
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VISIBILITIES WITHIN THE
HEAVIEST PART OF THE BAND MAY BE NEAR ZERO TIMES. WITH INVERSION
HEIGHTS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KFT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE,
SNOWFALL RATES OF 2"+ PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNSET IN THE
HEAVIEST PARTS OF THE BAND. ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-5" ARE EXPECTED IN
THE USUAL SNOWBELTS ACROSS NW INDIANA AND SW LOWER MICHIGAN,
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. BECAUSE OF THE NATURE OF
THE LAKE EFFECTS, AMOUNTS MAY VARY ACROSS SHORT DISTANCES. BE
PREPARED FOR LOW VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS SLICK, SNOW-COVERED
ROADS FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-80/I-90
AND I-94 CORRIDORS!
TONIGHT, LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECT TO PERSIST THROUGH 06Z-09Z.
NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW TO EXTEND FURTHER
INLAND, ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY NORTH OF US 30. IT
IS WORTH NOTING THOUGH THAT THE 12Z SUITE OF HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE
IS MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE IN BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW INLAND THAN
IT WAS YESTERDAY OR EARLIER THIS MORNING. NEVERTHELESS, STILL
THINKING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT AS FAR
EAST AS I-69 AND AS FAR SOUTH AS US 24 OVERNIGHT. INVERSION
HEIGHTS CRASH AT SOUTH BEND AROUND 1-2 AM EST TUESDAY AND AT
FORT WAYNE AROUND 4-5 AM EST. WINDS WILL ALSO BACK WEST AND WITH
A DECREASE IN FETCH, LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
BETWEEN 06Z-09Z. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-5" ARE EXPECTED
NORTH OF I-80/I-90 IN FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN; BETWEEN I-80/I-90 AND US 30, ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 1-3". LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IF THE LAKE EFFECT BAND BECOMES STATIONARY.
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED AND HIGHLY VARIABLE AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN SOUTH BEND AND FORT WAYNE
WHEREVER THE LAKE EFFECT PERSISTS. SLICK SPOTS AND BLACK ICE
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE, EVEN IN AREAS THAT
DON'T GET ANY LAKE EFFECT. THE SUN HAS HELPED TO MELT SNOW
TODAY AND WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S OVERNIGHT, MELTED SNOW WILL
LIKELY REFREEZE OVERNIGHT.
THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TODAY WAS THE CHANGES MADE TO
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. WITH THE 12+ HOUR LULL IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW
EARLIER THIS MORNING, THE DECISION WAS MADE TO REPLACE THE WINTER
STORM WARNING WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. SEVERAL COUNTIES THAT
WERE NOT IN A PREVIOUS HEADLINE WERE ALSO ADDED AS CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPANDING INLAND OVERNIGHT. A MULTI-
SEGMENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS OR WILL BE IN EFFECT NORTH OF US
30 AND WEST OF I 69. FOR LA PORTE AND STARKE COUNTIES, THE ADVISORY
IS ALREADY IN EFFECT AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH LATE EVENING. FOR
BERRIEN COUNTY, MI, THE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AND LASTS THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. FOR ALL OTHER COUNTIES IN THE ADVISORY, IT WILL GO
INTO EFFECT AT 4 PM EST TODAY AND LAST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
THE REST OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH A GRADUAL
TREND BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. DRY AIR WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS AND
IMPACTS. DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM FROM HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 ON
TUESDAY TO THE LOW TO MID 60S BY SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
PREDOMINANTLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES, WITH LOW
CHANCES FOR BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES AT KFWA BEFORE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS MOVE EAST AND DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING. A SINGLE
BAND OF SNOW EXTENDS FROM WESTERN LOWER MI ALONG THE LAKE MI
COAST DOWN SOUTHEASTWARD INTO GOSHEN AND FORT WAYNE, IN AS OF
THIS WRITING. VISIBILITIES FURTHER NORTH IN THE BAND LOOK TO
VARY FROM VFR DOWN TO AROUND 2SM IN THE HEAVIER PORTIONS (GSH).
WITH KFWA AT THE TAIL END OF THE BAND HAVE VISIBILITIES DROPPING
TO AROUND 4SM WITH POTENTIAL FOR CEILINGS OF 2500 FT THROUGH
9Z. OTHERWISE, KSBN IS JUST WEST OF THE BAND NOW AND EXPECT THIS
TO REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WEST
WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD, REMAINING AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25KTS BY THE
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE AN INTERMITTENT GUST TO AROUND 23 KNOTS
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT KFWA (IN THE TEMPO). VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AFTER 9Z FOR BOTH SITES, WITH MAINLY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ005-
006-008-014-017-104-116-204-216.
OH...NONE.
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ078-
079-177-277.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...MCD
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