642
FXUS63 KIWX 110812
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
312 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FLURRIES TODAY BUT NO ACCUMULATION OR
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
- OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SLOWLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES.
- TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE
FOR RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE NOW FULLY BACKED WESTERLY, REDUCING FETCH WITH
CRASHING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. LAKE
EFFECT BAND IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EAST AS A RESULT.
SNOWFALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN SCARCE OVERNIGHT BUT REPORTS THUS FAR
SUBSTANTIATE FORECAST OF 3-6" IN OUR NW COUNTIES. SNOW HAS ENDED IN
THE WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW AND EASTERN AREAS
LIKELY RECEIVED LESS OVERALL SNOW. WITH SNOW BAND NOW EXITING, WILL
GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE ADVISORY BY 4AM.
A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE FIRST WILL SEND A WEAK WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
SOME MINOR ISENTROPIC ASCENT COULD SUPPORT FLURRIES AT TIMES TODAY
BUT OVERALL PROFILE IS VERY DRY AND STABLE WITH LIMITED MID/UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ASCENT. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATION OR
IMPACTS. HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S TODAY AND DON'T DROP
MUCH TONIGHT WITH THE PASSING WARM FRONT. WHEN THE SECOND WAVE
PASSES TO OUR NE LATE TONIGHT, TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR JUST RAIN. HERE AGAIN THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES ARE SEVERELY LIMITED
BY POOR FORCING AND RESIDUAL DRY AIR. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE IN
OUR FAR NE BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. QUIET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY AND THIS COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW ISOLATED, LIGHT
SHOWERS. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN OCCUR WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT MODELS STILL SHOW A
VERY LARGE SPREAD WITH EVOLVING PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS VERY LOW. DO STILL EXPECT A PERIOD OF 60S
OVER THE WEEKEND THOUGH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
PREDOMINANTLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES, WITH LOW
CHANCES FOR BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES AT KFWA BEFORE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS MOVE EAST AND DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING. A SINGLE
BAND OF SNOW EXTENDS FROM WESTERN LOWER MI ALONG THE LAKE MI
COAST DOWN SOUTHEASTWARD INTO GOSHEN AND FORT WAYNE, IN AS OF
THIS WRITING. VISIBILITIES FURTHER NORTH IN THE BAND LOOK TO
VARY FROM VFR DOWN TO AROUND 2SM IN THE HEAVIER PORTIONS (GSH).
WITH KFWA AT THE TAIL END OF THE BAND HAVE VISIBILITIES DROPPING
TO AROUND 4SM WITH POTENTIAL FOR CEILINGS OF 2500 FT THROUGH
9Z. OTHERWISE, KSBN IS JUST WEST OF THE BAND NOW AND EXPECT THIS
TO REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WEST
WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD, REMAINING AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25KTS BY THE
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE AN INTERMITTENT GUST TO AROUND 23 KNOTS
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT KFWA (IN THE TEMPO). VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AFTER 9Z FOR BOTH SITES, WITH MAINLY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ005-
006-008-014-017-104-116-204-216.
OH...NONE.
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ078-
079-177-277.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...MCD
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