828
FXUS63 KIWX 111725
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1225 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FLURRIES TODAY BUT NO ACCUMULATION OR
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
- OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SLOWLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES.
- TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE
FOR RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE NOW FULLY BACKED WESTERLY, REDUCING FETCH WITH
CRASHING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. LAKE
EFFECT BAND IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EAST AS A RESULT.
SNOWFALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN SCARCE OVERNIGHT BUT REPORTS THUS FAR
SUBSTANTIATE FORECAST OF 3-6" IN OUR NW COUNTIES. SNOW HAS ENDED IN
THE WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW AND EASTERN AREAS
LIKELY RECEIVED LESS OVERALL SNOW. WITH SNOW BAND NOW EXITING, WILL
GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE ADVISORY BY 4AM.
A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE FIRST WILL SEND A WEAK WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
SOME MINOR ISENTROPIC ASCENT COULD SUPPORT FLURRIES AT TIMES TODAY
BUT OVERALL PROFILE IS VERY DRY AND STABLE WITH LIMITED MID/UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ASCENT. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATION OR
IMPACTS. HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S TODAY AND DON'T DROP
MUCH TONIGHT WITH THE PASSING WARM FRONT. WHEN THE SECOND WAVE
PASSES TO OUR NE LATE TONIGHT, TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR JUST RAIN. HERE AGAIN THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES ARE SEVERELY LIMITED
BY POOR FORCING AND RESIDUAL DRY AIR. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE IN
OUR FAR NE BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. QUIET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY AND THIS COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW ISOLATED, LIGHT
SHOWERS. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN OCCUR WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT MODELS STILL SHOW A
VERY LARGE SPREAD WITH EVOLVING PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS VERY LOW. DO STILL EXPECT A PERIOD OF 60S
OVER THE WEEKEND THOUGH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS TONIGHT OVERTAKE TODAY'S HEIGHT RISES
INDICATING LESS SUPPRESSION AROUND FOR SYSTEMS AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES
THROUGH LAKE MI AND WAA TRANSITIONS TO CAA. WITH THIS INFLUENCE, THE
RAP AND THE NAM BOTH HAVE SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
APPROACH MVFR CONDITIONS. THIS IS NOT REFLECTED IN
GLAMP/LAV/CONSHORT GUIDANCE, WHICH SEES IT AS MID-HIGH LEVEL CIGS.
AM INCLINED TO HOLD ONTO THE LATTER GUIDANCE UNTIL GREATER
CONFIDENCE ARISES, BUT EVEN THE HREF INDICATES SOME HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THAT WAVE, A 50 KT JET MOVES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND A 40 KT NW'ERLY JET OVERTAKES IT OVERNIGHT. THIS
ALLOWS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LLWS AT BOTH SITES.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...ROLLER
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