030
FXUS63 KIWX 111846
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
146 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SLICK SPOTS POSSIBLE OVRNIGHT AND FOR THE WEDNESDAY MORNING
COMMUTE, ESPECIALLY ON SECONDARY ROADS.
- THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 146 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THE PAST
TWO NIGHTS, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.
MELTING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD RESULT IN SOME SLICK SPOTS
OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS IT REFREEZES OVERNIGHT.
AFTER A VERY ACTIVE PAST FEW DAYS, THE UPCOMING NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WILL BE MAINLY QUIET, DRY, AND GRADUALLY WARMER. A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
US AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL MAKE FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY, WEST WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
INCREASING WAA THROUGH THE WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
TOMORROW HIGH'S WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND BY THE WEEKEND,
HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 60S!
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
ONTARIO ON SATURDAY. IT'S ATTENDANT WARM FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY (LOW CHANCES), BUT BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY SUNDAY WITH THE
SYSTEM'S ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. AS THIS IS 4-5 DAYS OUT, THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY TO WORK THROUGH REGARDING THE OVERALL
TIMING AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS TONIGHT OVERTAKE TODAY'S HEIGHT RISES
INDICATING LESS SUPPRESSION AROUND FOR SYSTEMS AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES
THROUGH LAKE MI AND WAA TRANSITIONS TO CAA. WITH THIS INFLUENCE, THE
RAP AND THE NAM BOTH HAVE SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
APPROACH MVFR CONDITIONS. THIS IS NOT REFLECTED IN
GLAMP/LAV/CONSHORT GUIDANCE, WHICH SEES IT AS MID-HIGH LEVEL CIGS.
AM INCLINED TO HOLD ONTO THE LATTER GUIDANCE UNTIL GREATER
CONFIDENCE ARISES, BUT EVEN THE HREF INDICATES SOME HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THAT WAVE, A 50 KT JET MOVES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND A 40 KT NW'ERLY JET OVERTAKES IT OVERNIGHT. THIS
ALLOWS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LLWS AT BOTH SITES.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...ROLLER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page