710
FXUS63 KIWX 131654
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1154 AM EST THU NOV 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TRENDING WARMER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 218 AM EST THU NOV 13 2025
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY AMPLIFIES OVERHEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK, ALLOWING THE AREA TO THAW OUT FOLLOWING OUR PREMATURE
WINTER EPISODE. A LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DISPLACES
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING, ALLOWING THE RIDGE AXIS TO BE CENTERED OVER
MIDWEST ON SATURDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S. PRECEDING
THIS, HIGHS IN THE 50S WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOSER TO
60 FRIDAY. SATELLITE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTION IN SNOW COVER. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE THIS MORNING DEPICTED A
MORE EXPANSIVE SNOW PACK THAN REALITY, THUS, I DID NUDGE UP
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AT
850-MB BUT RISING 500-MB HEIGHTS WERE FACTORS AS WELL.
THIS RIDGE FLATTENS SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE AND OVER TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOOK
FOR A 20-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON;
PERHAPS TOO EARLY/FAST GIVEN THE PRECEDING RIDGE AND DISJOINTED
MOISTURE. THE BEST CO-LOCATION OF FORCING AND PACIFIC MOISTURE IS
OVER FAR NORTHERN MI AND EASTERN ONTARIO, THUS THROWING A WRENCH
INTO THE LOCAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S WHICH IS JUST
SHY OF NORMAL FOR MID-NOVEMBER. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO
SHIFT EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER-AIR PATTERN SUGGESTS AT LEAST A 30-40% CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1152 AM EST THU NOV 13 2025
DRY CONDITIONS AND VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
MOVE IN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH. WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BECOME SOUTHWEST BY THE
EVENING AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
046.
DISCUSSION...BROWN
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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