191
FXUS63 KIWX 141723
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1223 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH JUST A LOW
(20%) CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY.
- HIGHS RETURN TO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
- LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A MUCH
BETTER CHANCE LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 AM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
WARM FRONT WHICH BROUGHT A SWATH OF MIDLEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW
SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT IS NOW EXITING THE AREA. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TODAY WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S (SAVE PERHAPS
FAR NE) GIVEN STEADY SW FLOW AND WAA. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE
SIMILARLY MILD AS SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AND CLOUD COVER BOTH
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. MANY LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN IN THE 50S
OVERNIGHT WITH MID/UPPER 40S IN THE FAR NE. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK AND ASSOCIATED MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES
ON SAT. OUR CWA REMAINS IN AN UNFAVORABLE LOCATION FOR PRECIP WITH
BETTER CVA AND LEFT EXIT JET DYNAMICS PASSING JUST TO THE NE.
HOWEVER, AS HAS BEEN THE CASE SEVERAL TIMES IN THE LAST FEW WEEKS,
MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO TOUCH
OFF AN ISOLATED, LIGHT SHOWER, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF US-30. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT A FAIRLY BROAD 20 POP ON SAT BUT MOST PLACES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY. TEMPS RETURN TO SEASONAL REALITY ON SUN WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS AROUND 30F. ABUNDANT DRY/STABLE AIR AND
LIMITED FETCH WILL PREVENT ANY LAKE EFFECT PRECIP IN OUR AREA THOUGH.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE THE UPPER LOW PRESENTLY SPINNING
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. AFTER WOBBLING AROUND THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS A BIT, IT WILL EJECT EASTWARD AND GET SHEARED OUT AS
IT ENTERS HIGHLY CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STILL, SOME
MODEST CVA AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FGEN WILL LIKELY BRING A SWATH
OF PRECIP MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF US-30.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER AS DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
STILL SHOWING SOME IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND TRACK. HAVE A
MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE NE ZONES MON NIGHT GIVEN SURFACE WET
BULBS WELL INTO THE 20S. SOME LIGHT/BRIEF FREEZING RAIN CAN'T BE
RULED OUT AT THE ONSET OF THE EVENT BUT SUSPECT ANYWHERE THAT IS
COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE WILL LIKELY BE DRY ENOUGH FOR NO PRECIP (AND
VICE VERSA). WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS PERIOD THOUGH.
A SIMILAR, ALBEIT STRONGER, SYSTEM THEN EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS ONE APPEARS TO TAKE A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WHICH
ALLOWS FOR LESS SHEARING AND MUCH BETTER MOISTURE RETURN. RAIN IS
LIKELY AT SOME POINT LATE NEXT WEEK THOUGH DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR THIS
FAR OUT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
RIDGING WITHIN A WAA PATTERN KEEPS THE AREA DRY AND WITHIN VFR
CONDITIONS TO START. OVER THE COURSE OF THE TAF PERIOD, THE
INFLUENCE FROM HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO INCOMING LOW PRESSURE AND
THIS THREATENS SOME SPRINKLES ON SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER
6Z IS NOTED AT THE SURFACE, BUT WINDS LOOK TOO HIGH FOR FOG SO IT
PROBABLY IS SOME VARIATION OF LOWER CIGS. AVIATION GUIDANCE IS NOT
PICKING UP ON THIS YET AND KEEPS THE AREA WITHIN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE LOWER CIGS ARE IN OUR NE'ERN ZONES AS
OPPOSED TO OVER FWA AND SBN. AT THIS POINT, AM FINE KEEPING THIS
POTENTIAL OUT OF THE TAFS, BUT THIS WILL WANT TO BE INVESTIGATED
AGAIN FOR THE NEXT ISSUANCE.
GIVEN THE TRANSITION FROM HIGH TO LOW PRESSURE BEING THE DOMINANT
WEATHER PROVIDER, THE PATTERN APPEARS MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE TO LLWS,
BUT GIVEN ITS MARGINALITY, WILL NOT PUT IT IN. WIND GUSTS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO REACH 25 KTS AT BOTH SITES ON SATURDAY WITH THE 35 KT
JET AND SHALLOW MIXING.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...ROLLER
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